Bitcoin Hashrate Enters Bear Market Territory, Twenty One Capital CEO Says

Highlights:

• Twenty One Capital CEO Raphael Zagury says Bitcoin may be entering its first true hashrate bear market.
• Bitcoin hashrate remains about 22% to 24% below its 2025 peak as mining profitability weakens.
• Zagury says lower network competition could help efficient Bitcoin miners while AI investment draws more capital.

Bitcoin may be going through its first real hashrate bear market as mining activity stays well below its 2025 record, according to Twenty One Capital CEO Raphael Zagury. Zagury discussed the change in Bitcoin mining during Bitcoin Asia 2026 in Hong Kong. Twenty One Capital later filed a presentation and transcript with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 31.

Bitcoin’s network hashrate reached an all-time high of 1,275 exahashes per second (EH/s) on September 19, 2025. It has since fallen into the high-900 EH/s range, leaving it about 22% to 24% below that peak. According to Zagury’s presentation, Bitcoin has also gone longer without reaching a new hashrate high than at any point in the past decade.

Hashrate measures the total computing power miners use to secure the Bitcoin network and compete for block rewards. When mining becomes less profitable, some operators may switch off machines, reducing the network’s overall hashrate.

Twenty One Capital CEO: Bitcoin Is Experiencing Its First-Ever Hashrate Bear Market; Nearly All Miners Are Moving From Bitcoin Mining to AI

Tether-backed Bitcoin treasury company Twenty One Capital CEO Rapha Zagury said at Bitcoin Asia 2026 that Bitcoin is experiencing its… pic.twitter.com/cw8WiyROll

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 2, 2026

Bitcoin Hashrate Decline Is Different From 2021

Zagury said the current Bitcoin hashrate decline looks very different from the sharp drop seen after China banned Bitcoin mining in 2021. At that time, network hashrate fell from about 180 EH/s to 86 EH/s in just 51 days. Many miners had to shut down and move their equipment outside China. Once those machines found new locations, they came back online and the network reached another record roughly nine months later.

The current downturn is moving more slowly. Instead of miners being forced offline by government action, some machines no longer make economic sense at current hashprice levels. “We’re living through something that looks very different than what we saw in 2021 with the China ban,” Zagury said.

Twenty One Capital also pointed to growing investment in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. Capital that might previously have gone toward new Bitcoin mining capacity is increasingly being directed toward AI and HPC infrastructure.

Lower Bitcoin Hashrate Could Favor Efficient Miners

Zagury argued that falling hashrate does not make Bitcoin mining a bad business for every operator. Electricity prices, machine efficiency, and debt levels can make a large difference between a profitable miner and one that needs to shut down.

Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment can also help miners that remain online. The network adjusts mining difficulty roughly every 2,016 blocks, or about every two weeks. When higher-cost miners switch off their machines, difficulty can fall, allowing remaining operators to compete for a larger share of the fixed block rewards.

Zagury said mining has a better chance of outperforming Bitcoin when BTC’s price rises faster than network hashrate. However, he gave a simpler answer for investors choosing between the two with limited capital. “If you only have $1, buy Bitcoin first,” Zagury said.

AI Is Changing Bitcoin Mining Economics

The growing AI industry is also changing how miners view their power and data center infrastructure. Mining operations often control large energy connections, land, and equipment that may also support AI or high-performance computing workloads.

Zagury said many public mining companies are no longer focused on expanding Bitcoin mining at scale. For efficient operators that continue mining, weaker network competition could increase their share of Bitcoin mining rewards without requiring them to add more machines.