Bitcoin Price Could Fall Below $76K, QCP Warns

Highlights:

• Bitcoin held above $76,000 after the Binance hack, but QCP warned that market risks remain high.
• Investors withdrew $643 million from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday, adding pressure to the crypto market.
• QCP warned Bitcoin could fall toward $75,700 or $73,100 if buyers fail to defend $76,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) has held above $76,000 following the $6.3 billion Binance hack, even after losing the key $80,000 level last week. Crypto trading firm QCP Capital said the market avoided a sharper selloff, but warned that ETF outflows, stolen Bitcoin movements, and upcoming US events could bring more volatility.

In its November 2 market report, QCP said Bitcoin fell to $76,141 on Friday, October 30, its lowest level since September 17. However, buyers returned to around $76,000–$76,600, a support area that has now held four times. Bitcoin still ended October down 7.3%, marking its second consecutive October loss.

QCP: Bitcoin Holds $76K Support as Binance Sees $3.64B Net Outflows

QCP said Bitcoin fell to $76,141 last Friday after breaking below $80,000, but the $76,000–$76,600 range held for a fourth time. Binance has reopened withdrawals across 15 networks following the exploit, with… pic.twitter.com/Sw85wUK0vO

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 2, 2026

Binance Recovery Progresses as Stolen Bitcoin Remains at Risk

QCP linked part of last week’s market weakness to the October 29 Binance hack, in which attackers stole approximately $6.3 billion in cryptocurrency, including 18,270 BTC. Binance reopened withdrawals across 15 blockchain networks on November 1. Customers withdrew approximately $4.65 billion and deposited $1.01 billion, leaving a net outflow of $3.64 billion. That represented around 2.1% of the exchange’s reported assets.

The exchange also said it had covered approximately 95% of stolen funds. However, its updated proof-of-reserves report, which helps verify assets backing customer balances, was delayed until Tuesday, November 3. Meanwhile, QCP warned that the attacker still holds the stolen Bitcoin and has started dividing it into smaller amounts of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC.

Traders are closely watching whether those coins move toward cryptocurrency exchanges, where they could potentially be sold. However, QCP did not report any confirmed sales of those holdings.

Bitcoin ETFs Record $643 Million Outflows

Institutional demand remained weak following the Binance attack. According to QCP, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $643.2 million in net outflows on Friday. The withdrawals pushed weekly net flows to approximately negative $202 million. October also ended with roughly $516 million in net outflows.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin options traders continued seeking protection against further price declines. QCP identified two large positions involving $74,000 put options, each covering 1,000 BTC. Separately, approximately $10.92 billion in Deribit Bitcoin options expired last week, settling near $78,119. QCP said the expiry removed a source of market stability that had previously helped limit price swings.

QCP Identifies Key Bitcoin Price Levels Ahead of US Elections

QCP expects several upcoming events to influence Bitcoin’s next move, including the November 3 US midterm elections and Binance’s updated reserve report. Investors are also watching the Bank of England’s November 5 interest rate decision and US employment data scheduled for November 6.

Meanwhile, oil prices remain another concern as tensions involving Iran and shipping near the Strait of Hormuz continue. For Bitcoin, QCP identified support between $76,000 and $76,600, with resistance between $79,500 and $80,500.

A daily close above $79,500 could improve Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. However, a break below $76,000 could bring the 50-week moving average near $75,700 into focus, followed by the 200-day moving average around $73,100. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,845, down 0.05% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.