Solana Price Prediction – FOMC Decision Could Trigger Breakout Toward $97 or Drop to $62

Highlights:

• Solana holds steady ahead of the FOMC decision as declining trading volume reflects cautious investor sentiment.
• Morgan Stanley’s planned Solana ETPs and staking access strengthen the cryptocurrency’s long-term institutional adoption outlook.
• A break below $73.75 could send SOL to $62.08, while a move above $82.60 targets $97.30.

Solana (SOL) is little changed intraday, reflecting the broader calm across financial markets. At the time of writing, SOL was trading at $74.09, up 1.02% on the day. While the token has posted modest gains, trading volume has declined, suggesting that new buyers are staying on the sidelines as they await confirmation of the next price direction. The drop in volume could also indicate that long-term holders remain reluctant to sell their positions. Overall, current trading activity points to a cautious market.

Fed Policy Uncertainty Leaves Solana Price Stuck in a Narrow Range

The primary driver of this caution is the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision later today. Since 2020, markets had largely grown accustomed to anticipating FOMC rate decisions well before they were announced. However, after Kelvin Warsh assumed leadership, he indicated that this practice would end. As a result, both institutional and retail investors now face greater uncertainty heading into policy announcements.

BREAKING:

The FOMC decision drops today at 2 PM ET.

Rates have been held at 3.50% to 3.75% since December.
But this meeting is different.

CME FedWatch just priced in a 37.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
The highest odds seen all year.

Oil above $100 a barrel. Gas up 38%… pic.twitter.com/L4JNT4quP5

— Crypto Tice (@CryptoTice_) July 29, 2026

To avoid the volatility likely to accompany today’s decision, many traders are staying on the sidelines. This is particularly true for high-risk assets such as Solana and other cryptocurrencies.

Stock Market Rout Triggers Concerns for Solana and Other Cryptocurrencies

Investor caution is also being fueled by weakness in the stock market. The cryptocurrency market has closely mirrored equity indices, which many investors increasingly view as overvalued.

Technology stocks have been the primary driver of recent market gains. However, sentiment has weakened following reports that China is developing its own deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines. Combined with elevated interest rates and record-high equity valuations, the news has intensified concerns that a broader market correction could be approaching. Such a correction could weigh heavily on cryptocurrencies, including Solana. Despite these short-term risks, long-term holders appear largely unfazed.

Exclusive: China has begun mass producing domestically developed immersion deep-ultraviolet lithography machines, a technology crucial to advanced chipmaking, marking a key step forward in Beijing's drive to reduce its reliance on foreign technologies https://t.co/jFIWhQvLXE

— Reuters (@Reuters) July 29, 2026

Growing Institutional Adoption Could Lift SOL

One of the main reasons long-term investors remain confident is the continued expansion of institutional investment opportunities. Morgan Stanley’s launch of Solana and Ethereum ETPs represents a significant milestone. These products would provide institutional investors with easier access to SOL while also improving the asset’s credibility among more conservative retail investors.

In addition, because the ETPs include staking, institutional investors seeking yield could remove a meaningful amount of SOL from circulation. These improved supply-and-demand dynamics could help propel Solana price to new highs once broader risk appetite returns.

Improving Regulatory Environment Could Support a Recovery

The regulatory outlook is also becoming more favorable. The CLARITY Act, which is widely expected to attract additional institutional capital into digital assets, is anticipated to pass in the coming days. Outside the United States, sentiment is also improving. Hong Kong’s approval of an XRP trading platform signals growing regulatory acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the region. Together, these developments could boost demand across the crypto market and support Solana’s long-term outlook.

🇭🇰XRP now available for retail investors in Hong Kong for the first time! Hello HK! https://t.co/gfjyQgWl9l

— Tats (@tatsuya_kohrogi) July 29, 2026

Technical Analysis – Solana Price Consolidates After Failed Rebound

After Solana’s rally stalled at the $82.60 resistance level on July 3, the token entered a consolidation phase, with $73.75 emerging as key support. If bears push SOL below $73.75, the price could decline toward $62.08 in the short term.

Conversely, if bulls regain control and push SOL above the $82.60 resistance level, the next upside target could be $97.30. This could happen later in the day, depending on how the FOMC interest rate decision will go.