Wintermute Warns Bitcoin Could Face Pressure as Altcoins Lose Steam

Highlights:

• Bitcoin faces stronger macro pressure as rising Treasury yields and renewed stock correlation increase downside risks.
• Altcoins posted their first weekly decline since early August, signalling possible fatigue after months of gains.
• Wintermute remains moderately bullish, but further crypto gains may depend on lower yields and stronger market sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces stronger macro pressure as its link to U.S. stocks rises again. Meanwhile, altcoins have recorded their first weekly decline since early August. Wintermute shared the outlook in its October 5 market update. The crypto trading firm said altcoins fell 1.1% over the week. In comparison, Bitcoin gained 2.4%.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The 10-year yield is now near 5.35%, its highest level since 2008. Higher yields can pressure risk assets. Investors can earn stronger returns from bonds, which may reduce demand for assets such as Bitcoin.

https://t.co/1uRN2oBUHk

— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) October 6, 2026

Bitcoin Correlation With Stocks Rises Again

Wintermute said Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has started rising again. The two markets had largely moved apart over the previous two months. However, the latest shift changes Bitcoin’s risk profile. Historically, Bitcoin has often behaved like a higher-beta version of the S&P 500 when correlation is high. In other words, Bitcoin can fall harder when stocks decline.

However, it does not always rise at the same pace when equities move higher. Because of this, Wintermute currently sees macro risks as more important than crypto-specific catalysts. Bitcoin recently broke above its previous $76,000 to $82,500 range. It later retested $82,500 and held above it. Now, Wintermute sees $90,000 to $95,000 as the next major upside area. Bitcoin previously faced resistance around $94,000 to $96,000. Still, another move higher may depend heavily on broader market conditions. Treasury yields remain a key factor.

Altcoins Rally Show Signs of Fatigue

Altcoins also showed some weakness during the week. Wintermute said the market recorded its first weekly decline since early August. At the same time, some lower-tier tokens continued to outperform stronger names. The firm sees this rotation as a possible sign of fatigue. Wintermute also reviewed new tokens entering the top 250 cryptocurrencies by market value. Based on that data, the firm believes the broader crypto cycle may still be in an early phase. However, individual altcoin rallies often last only three to four months during bull markets.

Therefore, Wintermute believes the current rally may already be mature. The firm also warned against chasing lower-quality altcoins just because they have not moved yet. Better opportunities may appear later in the cycle.

Treasury Yields Remain the Key Market Factor

Wintermute remains moderately bullish. However, its outlook depends heavily on U.S. bond yields. If yields fall, more capital could return to rate-sensitive assets. That could support another move higher in both stocks and crypto. Strong corporate earnings could also help market sentiment.

However, the outlook could weaken if long-term Treasury yields keep climbing. Wintermute also pointed to the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. The firm believes market uncertainty could ease after the election period.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $86,174, up about 0.1% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin remains about 31.7% below its all-time high of $126,198, reached on October 6.