Bitcoin Supply in Profit Hits 69%, Yet Most Investor Capital Sits at a Loss

Highlights:

• Bitcoin supply in profit rises to 69%, but most invested capital remains underwater across the market.
• Darkfost says Bitcoin is nearing a key cost basis around $79,600 as investor pressure begins easing.
• A daily and weekly close above $80,000 could strengthen Bitcoin’s recovery and return more capital to profit.

Bitcoin is moving closer to a key market test as 69% of its supply is now back in profit, according to on-chain analyst Darkfost. However, the picture looks very different when the market is measured by the amount of money investors have put into Bitcoin.

In an August 28 post on X, Darkfost said Bitcoin’s supply in profit has again become the majority. He noted that more than half of the supply has remained profitable for most of the current cycle, apart from only 15 days, including a period in July. A large share of older Bitcoin has also remained inactive for a long time. DarkFost said this makes supply data less useful on its own. Looking at how much money investors have actually put into Bitcoin gives a clearer picture of the market.

🟢 Today, supply in profit has indeed become the majority again, with 69% of it in profit.

It’s true that investors returning to profit is a good thing for the market, but caution is needed when looking at this from a supply perspective.

—> During this cycle, supply in profit… https://t.co/em4es5DHNU pic.twitter.com/WJHaMC6lQN

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) August 28, 2026

Most Invested Bitcoin Capital Is Still at a Loss

According to DarkFost, about $617 billion of capital invested in Bitcoin is currently sitting at a loss, while around $447 billion is in profit. That leaves the majority of invested money underwater even though most Bitcoin supply is profitable. “Today, the majority of the capitalization invested in Bitcoin remains at a loss. For a capitalization of around $1T, there is currently $617B invested at a loss versus $447B in profit,” Darkfost said.

The gap is now narrowing. As the Bitcoin price moves higher, more investors are getting closer to their purchase price. Darkfost said the market is approaching a point where some holders may choose to exit once they can sell without taking a loss. Others may continue holding in hopes of moving further into profit.

That decision could become an important test for Bitcoin’s recovery. Darkfost also pushed back against the idea that the latest bear market caused less pain than earlier cycles. He said the amount of capital sitting at a loss reached a record $935 billion during the downturn. According to the analyst, the figure shows how difficult the correction has been even without the same level of capitulation seen in some previous Bitcoin cycles.

Bitcoin’s $80,000 Level Comes Into Focus

In a separate August 27 post, Darkfost said several technical and on-chain measures are now pointing toward the $80,000 area. He argued that Bitcoin’s traditional realized price has become less useful because a large share of older BTC supply remains inactive. Instead, he weighted Bitcoin’s cost basis by the amount of capital invested. That calculation produced a level near $79,600.

“When we weight the realized price by this capital factor, we get a cost basis of ~$79,600. This is the barrier Bitcoin is currently struggling with,” Darkfost said. A move above that area could bring a much larger share of invested capital back into profit. Darkfost said a daily close above $80,000, followed by a weekly close above the same level, would be a strong signal for the market.

Bitcoin is trading around $79,804 at the time of writing, up about 0.50% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.