Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Return to Profit as BTC Holds Strong

Highlights:

• Bitcoin has moved above the $70,100-$71,900 short-term holder cost basis after staying there for nearly a month.
• Darkfost says the move puts most recent Bitcoin buyers back into profit after weeks of pressure.
• The signal is positive, but it does not yet confirm that Bitcoin has started a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved above a key short-term holder cost basis zone, putting most recent buyers back into profit after weeks of pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said on September 18 that BTC has stayed above this estimated range for almost a month, which marks a notable change from conditions seen during the current bear market.

According to Darkfost, the relevant Bitcoin cost basis sits between $70,100 and $71,900. His chart does not treat the short-term holder cost basis as one fixed line. Instead, it shows a concentration of capital invested across different Bitcoin age bands over roughly the past 150 to 155 days.

“This clearly shows that this is the first time since the start of the bear market that Bitcoin has managed to break free from this estimated cost basis of between $70,100 and $71,900,” Darkfost said.

bitcoin:native has managed to climb above the STH cost basis for almost a month now.

The STH cost basis isn't represented in a linear way here, since ultimately it's an average.

Factoring in invested capital across different age bands, this cloud represents the average… pic.twitter.com/lsZhIgGsEP

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 18, 2026

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Move Back Into Profit

Bitcoin is now trading around 5% above the estimated short-term holder cost basis, according to Darkfost. He said that positive gap suggests most short-term holders are currently sitting on unrealized profits rather than losses.

The shift gives newer Bitcoin buyers more breathing room. When BTC trades below their average buying price, those holders may become more sensitive to further declines. Moving back above the cost basis puts many of them into a more comfortable position.

Darkfost described the move as a positive market signal and noted that a similar pattern appeared near the end of the 2023 bear market. However, the metric alone does not confirm that Bitcoin has started a sustained recovery. It mainly shows that recent buyers are in a stronger position while BTC remains above their estimated average cost.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $78,314, up about 2.5% over the previous 24 hours. BTC remains roughly 38.1% below its all-time high of $126,198.07, reached on October 6, 2025, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Positive Again

The improvement in short-term holder profitability also came as crypto ETF flows stabilized after two heavy outflow sessions. In a separate September 18 update, Darkfost said total crypto ETF net flows returned to positive territory at $119 million. Bitcoin attracted most of the buying, with about $159 million in net inflows.

Ethereum products, meanwhile, recorded roughly $39 million in net outflows, while HYPE products drew about $4.3 million. The rebound followed two days of the largest net ETF outflows seen in four months, according to Darkfost. The return of Bitcoin inflows adds another supportive factor as BTC trades above the short-term holder cost zone.

After two days of the most significant net outflows seen in the past four months, ETFs turned back to buying yesterday.

Total crypto ETF netflows stand at +$119M. Bitcoin captured the bulk of the flows with +$159M. Ethereum, on the other hand, saw $39M in net outflows.

Worth… pic.twitter.com/ZEGTZOAxpF

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 18, 2026

For now, the $70,100 to $71,900 range remains an important level in Darkfost’s Bitcoin analysis. Staying above it would keep most recent BTC buyers in profit, while a move back below the zone could put short-term holders under pressure again.