Bitcoin Price Faces Make-or-Break Range Between $71,300 and $79,800

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is holding above $71,300, while $79,800 remains the key level stopping a stronger move higher.
• Darkfost says $71,300 reflects the average buying price of active Bitcoin holders in the market.
• Bitcoin price is trading near $76,400 after the Fed rate hike, while the crypto market remains cautious.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above $71,300, while $79,800 continues to block a move higher. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says these two levels are shaping Bitcoin’s current trading range. Darkfost shared the analysis on September 17. He said Bitcoin is still trading above its active supply cost basis, which currently sits near $71,300. This metric leaves out older Bitcoin that has not moved for a long time. Instead, it focuses on BTC that is actively circulating in the market. The $71,300 level therefore shows the average cost of more active Bitcoin holders.

Bitcoin Price Finds Support Around $71,300

Darkfost said $71,300 could become an important level if Bitcoin moves lower. Many active investors bought BTC around this area. Because of that, some holders may try to defend their positions if Bitcoin comes back toward their average buying price.

A similar pattern appeared near the end of the 2023 bear market. Bitcoin tested the active supply cost basis twice before the market started moving higher. Still, $71,300 is not a guaranteed floor. It is simply an important support area that traders may watch closely. Bitcoin is currently trading above that level. 

➤ On the other hand, when we shift approach and look at the cost basis of invested capital, we find a resistance level that BTC has so far failed to break through. At $79 800, Bitcoin continues to get rejected.

This is explained by the fact that this level marks the point at… pic.twitter.com/SevoowhXVO

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 17, 2026

BTC Keeps Running Into Resistance Near $79,800

Darkfost identified the $79,800 area using another metric called the invested capital cost basis. This level shows where a large amount of money entered the Bitcoin market. According to the analyst, BTC has struggled around $79,800 because some investors return to break-even there.

Some holders may choose to sell once their losses disappear. Others who bought lower may also take profits near the same level. That selling pressure has made it difficult for Bitcoin to move higher. Darkfost said Bitcoin showed a similar setup in 2023. At that time, BTC was rejected twice near the invested capital cost basis before finally breaking above it.

For now, Bitcoin price is moving inside a broad range between $71,300 and $79,800. Traders may see stronger reactions whenever BTC moves closer to either side. A clear break above $79,800 could reduce some of the current resistance. On the other hand, a drop below $71,300 would weaken the main support area highlighted by the on-chain data.

Fed Rate Hike Adds More Market Pressure

Bitcoin’s latest price action also comes after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16. The Fed increased rates by 25 basis points, taking the target range to 3.75%–4%. Bitcoin moved between roughly $75,000 and $76,500 after the announcement. Higher interest rates can affect crypto markets because they make safer assets more attractive and can reduce demand for riskier investments.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $76,465, up about 0.73% over the past 24 hours. BTC remains around 39% below its $126,080 all-time high. Bitcoin’s market value stands near $1.53 trillion. Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market is worth around $2.6 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance near 56.9%.