Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Price Could Fall to $90K Before Kicking Off Next Bull Run

Highlights:

• Hayes said Bitcoin could fall to $90K as market liquidity starts to shrink.
• He expects crypto prices to stay flat or dip until the Jackson Hole summit.
• He noted bank-backed stablecoins may unlock $6.8T in demand for U.S. debt.

In his recent blog post titled “Quid Pro Stablecoin,” Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes shared his thoughts on the current global economic situation and its possible effects on the crypto market. He cautioned that digital asset prices may remain flat or even dip slightly over the coming weeks. According to Hayes, this period of sluggish movement could last until the Jackson Hole economic symposium in August, where central bankers may signal key policy shifts that could influence market trends.

"Quid Pro Stablecoin" is a discussion on how US banks adopting stablecoins can provide $6.8 trillion of buying power for The BBC's shitty treasuries.https://t.co/QHqgZAPv0J pic.twitter.com/pcejYZ8Urx

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 3, 2025

Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Dip, Expects Slow Summer for Crypto

Hayes believes Bitcoin and the crypto market might go down a bit in the short term. Since Bitcoin has recently gone up a lot, he believes some investors might sell to take profits and wait to see what the Fed plans to do next. He also explains that if the U.S. government starts adding money back into its main bank account (called the Treasury General Account), it could take money out of the market.

When there’s less money flowing in the system, risky investments like crypto can fall in price. Looking at past market behavior, Hayes says Bitcoin might drop to around $90,000 for a short time. He believes this dip could push out weaker investors before the price rises again later.

Hayes also warns that we might see a quiet period in crypto this summer, where prices move slowly or drop a little. This could last until the Jackson Hole meeting in August, where important economic updates are expected. If the economy gets worse, Hayes says he may reduce Bitcoin holdings in his fund, Maelstrom. He has already sold some smaller altcoins that are harder to trade.

Hayes Predicts Bank-Backed Stablecoins Could Unlock Trillions for U.S. Debt

Hayes says this cycle is different because big banks are starting to enter the crypto space. After the U.S. government showed support for stablecoins, especially with the GENIUS Act passing in the Senate, banks like JPMorgan may launch their own dollar-backed tokens. Passed with a 68–30 vote, the bill marks the Senate’s first major step toward creating clear rules for stablecoins, which are among the fastest-growing areas in the crypto market.

Hayes says new rules give big banks a strong advantage in the stablecoin space. They already have large customer networks, follow strict rules, and work closely with the Federal Reserve. This helps them turn deposits into stablecoins and earn from short-term U.S. bonds. He says even a small shift of the $17 trillion in bank deposits into stablecoins could create $6.8 trillion in demand for U.S. debt. This shift, along with changes in how the Fed pays interest, could bring more money into the system and push up prices in crypto and stock markets.