Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000 by Year-End

Highlights:

• Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to surge to $250K, confident despite the recent market drop.
• He connects recovery to US dollar liquidity and ETF inflows supporting demand.
• Hayes says a softer Federal Reserve policy may drive Bitcoin beyond previous all-time highs.

BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes repeated his strong belief that Bitcoin could move toward $250,000 by year-end. He showed full confidence during a Wednesday appearance on the Milk Road Show. He said he will keep the same target and will not change his view. “I’m going to stick with it,” he said, noting that Bitcoin will either reach the price or not.

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Bitcoin Finds Floor and Recovers with Liquidity Support

Hayes said a major floor formed after last week’s drop to $80,600. The market has since recovered nearly 13% from that level, trading around $90,800 in the latest move. Hayes connected the fresh strength to support from US dollar liquidity. He said pressure eased after the October 10 leverage washout, which removed billions and opened space for new buying.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reaffirmed his year-end $250,000 Bitcoin target, saying on this week's "Milk Road Show" that last week’s dip to $80,600 marked the cycle bottom and the subsequent rebound supports that view. He added that much of the inflow into BlackRock's IBIT was…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 29, 2025

Hayes also pointed to new inflows entering BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF. He said big firms like Goldman Sachs used a “basis trade,” where they used the ETF to get borrowed money for short positions on CME futures. When funding conditions improved, they closed those trades by selling ETF positions and buying back the futures. Hayes said this process has likely finished. “We are bottom here and can go higher,” he said.

Policy Shifts Could Drive Bitcoin Beyond Previous Highs

Hayes said Bitcoin’s future momentum could come from US dollar liquidity hitting a floor and slower quantitative tightening. He noted the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October, showing the money supply shrinkage might be ending soon. Polymarket data suggested an 87% chance of another rate cut before December 10.

BitMEX co-founder said stronger liquidity and softer policy could help Bitcoin move past its previous all-time high of $126,220. He added that his forecast could be wrong, but he was not worried. Hayes said he remains long and comfortable either way.

Hayes remains optimistic but warns that Bitcoin is unstable, and his forecast is speculative. Market conditions can change quickly, and past trends may not predict the future. Bitcoin is currently $90,790, down 0.94% in the last 24 hours, with a trading volume of $57.14 billion and a market cap of $1.9 trillion.

A counterpoint arrived from veteran trader Peter Brandt. He offered a longer timeline and challenged optimism surrounding rapid upside calls. Brandt wrote on Thursday, “The next bull market in Bitcoin should take us to $200,000 or so. That should be in around Q3 2029,” further adding in the same post that he is a “long-term bull on Bitcoin.” His note drew attention due to repeated short-term calls from many crypto executives earlier in the year.

Some argue that after all these years Bitcoin is finally having its IPO moment now that there’s enough liquidity for the OGs to cash out. I agree, but this much Bitcoin moving from strong to weak hands not only increases the float, but also means future selloffs will be bigger.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) November 22, 2025

Hayes and Brandt now represent two sharply separated outlooks. One points toward a major surge within weeks, while the other sees a multi-year path. Market participants now watch incoming liquidity signals and Fed actions for cues on the next swing.

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