Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin Above $100K and Ethereum Above $5K by Year-End

Highlights:

• Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin will clear $100,000 and Ethereum will return above $5,000 before year-end.
• He says another weak quarter would challenge Bitcoin’s historical pattern and raise doubts about its market cycle.
• Lee also links Ethereum’s upside to institutional demand, Robinhood Chain, and its potential role in AI settlements.

Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 and Ethereum to climb back above $5,000 before the end of the year. He made the forecast in a video clip shared by Tom Lee Tracker on X on July 12 while discussing whether the recent crypto downturn had damaged the wider market outlook.

TOM LEE: BITCOIN OVER $100,000 AND ETHEREUM BACK OVER $5,000 BY YEAR END

He sets a clear test for whether the crypto thesis still holds:

– He sees Bitcoin above $100,000 and Ethereum back over $5,000 by the end of the year
– Bitcoin has been down three quarters in a row but… pic.twitter.com/DFtUka0UrN

— Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) (@TomLeeTracker) July 12, 2026

At the time of writing on July 13, Bitcoin was trading near $62,750, while Ethereum stood at around $1,777, according to CoinMarketCap. Both cryptocurrencies would therefore need a strong recovery to reach Lee’s targets before the end of the year.

Bitcoin Faces a Key Test After Three Weak Quarters

Lee said investor patience has been tested because Bitcoin has declined for three consecutive quarters. However, he argued that the July-to-September period could help determine whether the market is still following its usual cycle.

“I think Bitcoin’s been down three quarters in a row. But I think it’s never been down four quarters in a row,” Lee said. He added that a failure to recover between June and September could suggest that “something’s broken.” Still, Lee remains confident that Bitcoin can move above $100,000, while Ethereum could regain the $5,000 level before year-end.

Tom Lee Uses Bitcoin Mining Costs to Judge the Market

When asked what price would make him believe the Bitcoin story had broken, Lee focused on its production cost. The term refers to the expenses miners face when operating equipment, using electricity and securing the blockchain while competing to produce new blocks.

Lee said Bitcoin was trading about 5% below its estimated production cost. He argued that a decline to 50% below that level would create a much more serious problem because miners could struggle to support the network at the prevailing market price. “If Bitcoin falls below 50% of production cost, it literally means you just take down the network,” he said.

Lee compared such a situation to JPMorgan trading at half of its book value. His comments presented mining costs as an important reference point for judging whether Bitcoin has entered a deeper structural crisis.

WebX Speech Expands Lee’s Bullish Ethereum Outlook

In a separate appearance at WebX 2026 in Tokyo on July 13, Lee delivered a speech titled “Ethereum: The Antidote to the Wealth Horror Valley.” He argued that Ethereum could become an important financial network during the next stage of artificial intelligence development. “Under the leadership of the new foundation, ETH has the potential to become the settlement layer for the AI era,” Lee said.

He pointed to growing institutional adoption, the launch of Robinhood Chain and favorable economic conditions as possible drivers of Ethereum’s next recovery. Lee also compared Ethereum’s current market position with the U.S. stock market after the 1987 crash, arguing that ETH may be near a major bottom.  

🎙️TOM LEE LIVE AT WEBX 2026: 'ETHEREUM IS THE ANTIDOTE TO THE WEALTH HORROR VALLEY'

"Under the leadership of the new foundation, ETH has the potential to become the settlement layer for the AI era."

He cites the accelerating institutional adoption and the launch of Robinhood… pic.twitter.com/tMGoSAerva

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 13, 2026

During the speech, Lee said BitMine had accumulated 5.74 million ETH, representing about 4.8% of Ethereum’s supply. The company plans to gradually raise its holdings toward 5% while supporting projects and investments across the Ethereum ecosystem.