Ethereum Price Forecast – ETH Eyes $1300 as Bears Take Control

Highlights:

• Ethereum is trending towards the $1416.9 support intra-day
• Breach of the $1416.9 support could see Ethereum drop to $1300
• Uncertain macro-environment and whale selloffs could trigger correction

Ethereum’s value has fallen 6.76% to $1,459.57 in the last 24 hours. Daily trading volume has also fallen by 5.74% to $28.46 billion. This suggests that Ethereum holders may be unwilling to trade more at current prices. It could also mean that investors expect the price of Ethereum to fall further. 

Based on prevailing market circumstances, the odds are higher that investors may expect Ethereum to drop further. A new flare-up in the trade war between the U.S. and China is unsettling the markets after President Trump put a 104% tariff on its goods. Ethereum, perceived as high-risk, is particularly exposed to such macroeconomic shocks.

Technical Breakdown Points to Greater Underlying Weakness

Ethereum’s recent drop also comes after an attempt to rally above $1,861, an area of daily resistance, failed. The asset has experienced a nearly 13% decline over the last week, followed by an additional 7% drop at the start of this week.

On Wednesday morning, Ethereum touched a low of $1,385 – its lowest since October 2023 – before bouncing back modestly to $1,470. Ethereum’s realized price, which represents the average cost of each unit of ETH purchase, is currently below Ethereum’s trading price. This indicates market pessimism and could trigger more selloffs. Already, whales appear to be taking the cue and are offloading Ethereum. 

Trump-Backed Projects and Whales Dump Ethereum

World Liberty Financial, which has ties to Donald Trump, recently sold 5,471 ETH for a loss of over $210 million at an average purchase price of $3,259 per token. This has skyrocketed their unrealized loss to $125 million on ETH. Additionally, a long-term Ethereum whale offloaded 10,000 ETH for $15.71 million, losing his potential profit of $2.75 million in a 900-day price hold. This shift in the Ethereum market suggests large holders’ diminishing confidence.

#Trump has begun to accept losses on $ETH 🥲

In the last ~2 hours, Trump's World Liberty sold 5,471 $ETH to regain $8.01M $USDC at a price of $1,465. pic.twitter.com/CI9agkDhnK

— Degen God (@degengod_sol) April 9, 2025

Ethereum DEX Usage Drops to New 12-Month Low

Activity on Ethereum’s decentralized exchange (DEX) is also diminishing alarmingly. Daily unique traders have dropped to roughly 40,000 addresses, down from 95,000 in late 2024. DEX volumes followed this trend and fell to $57 billion in March from $112 billion in December. A decline in participation and reduced trade sizes reflect a more conservative approach from retail and institutional investors.

ETH slowdown isn’t random it’s fallout from Trump’s new tariffs, shaking global markets and cooling risk appetite across the entire economy.

ETH DEX flow is drying up, daily traders down to only 40K wallets, lowest in a year. From $112B volume at peak and now stuck at $57B.… pic.twitter.com/mPLR35zh4t

— Bentley | MevX Founder (@BentleyMEVX) April 9, 2025

A Shift Toward Layer 2s Piling Pressure on Ethereum

Although Ethereum activity is declining, it cannot be said that decentralized trading is dead; it is simply changing. Layer 2 solutions like Base are gaining popularity, while competing blockchains such as Solana are emerging as cheaper alternatives. This shift indicates a rerouting of volume rather than a complete abandonment of the decentralized finance space. However, it still points to potential further weakening for Ethereum in the short to medium term. 

Technical Analysis – Ethereum Price Bears Regaining Control

Like the rest of the market, Ethereum is headed lower today. If bears sustain momentum, Ethereum is headed toward the $1416.9 support.

If bears push Ethereum through the $1416.9 support, then a correction to the intra-day low of $1385.4. On the other hand, if there is a bullish rebound and Ethereum rallies through the $1482.3 resistance, then a retest of the $1500 resistance in the day. 

Recap

Slumping Ethereum prices and reduced participation indicate a market under strain. History suggests that precipitous drops below the realized price tend to start a recovery for most assets. With high tariff policies increasingly priced in and whales capitulating, Ethereum could be headed for a rebound. However, there could be more pain in the short term before a rebound.