Bitcoin Signals Possible End of Bear Cycle as On-Chain Metrics Improve

Highlights:

• Bitcoin’s MVRV is rising quickly, which could mean the bear cycle is starting to lose strength.
• Bitcoin’s Bull Score is back above 60, its first bullish reading for the market since October last year.
• Bitcoin is also moving higher as stronger sentiment and fresh U.S. crypto optimism support the rebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing two notable on-chain signals that suggest the current bear cycle may be losing strength. CryptoQuant analysts Crypto Dan and Darkfost have pointed to improvements in Bitcoin’s MVRV and Bull Score indicators, both of which have historically helped identify changes in broader market conditions.

Crypto Dan said in an August 21 CryptoQuant Quicktake that Bitcoin’s latest rebound has produced the first powerful signal of its kind during the current bear cycle. The analyst highlighted a sharp rise in the MVRV indicator, which tracks Bitcoin’s market value relative to the value at which coins were last moved.

BTC — The First Powerful Signal to Emerge in This cycle

“This signal is the very movement that appeared as the bottom range came to an end in every past downcycle. suggesting that the possibility of the market turning from decline to ascent is growing.” – By @DanCoinInvestor pic.twitter.com/UwW6zJHCok

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 21, 2026

Bitcoin MVRV Points to Possible End of Bottoming Phase

According to Crypto Dan, Bitcoin’s MVRV is now rising almost vertically. Similar movements appeared when the bottoming phase came to an end during previous Bitcoin downcycles. MVRV helps traders understand whether Bitcoin is trading above or below the broader market’s cost basis. A strong recovery in the indicator can therefore show that market valuation and investor conditions are improving.

Crypto Dan said the latest move raises the possibility that Bitcoin could be shifting from a declining market toward an upward trend. However, the signal does not confirm that a new bull market has already started. Another CryptoQuant indicator is now adding weight to that view.

Bitcoin Bull Score Crosses 60 for First Time Since October

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported on August 21 that the Bitcoin Bull Score has moved above 60, entering bullish territory for the first time since October 2025. The move is notable because Bitcoin failed to push the indicator into bullish territory even when BTC climbed above $82,000 in May.

According to Darkfost, six of the Bull Score’s 10 indicators have now turned green. They include demand growth, stablecoin liquidity, and trader realized price. The Bull Score combines several market indicators to identify whether Bitcoin is trading under bullish or bearish conditions. During stronger bull phases, Darkfost noted that the score generally remains above the 60 level before eventually falling back into bearish territory.

✅ Bitcoin’s bull score just crossed into bullish territory

👉 This is the first time the Bitcoin Bull Score has moved back into bullish territory (≥60) since October 2025.

Even in May, when BTC broke above $82,000, the indicator failed to move back into bull territory.

This… pic.twitter.com/QbVNKLzcFJ

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) August 21, 2026

If the score holds above 60 and continues rising, the analyst said a new Bitcoin bull cycle could be starting. Together, the rising MVRV and improving Bull Score provide two separate signs that Bitcoin’s broader market structure is strengthening.

Bitcoin Price Extends Rally After Trump Crypto Push

Bitcoin’s on-chain improvement comes alongside a sharp recovery in price. BTC was trading around $77,933 at the time of writing, up 8.77% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin remains well below its October 6 all-time high of $126,198.

The latest rally also followed improving U.S. regulatory sentiment. Bitcoin was trading near $68,300 on August 19 as crypto executives prepared to meet President Donald Trump at the White House. Trump later called on Congress to pass a “fair version” of the CLARITY Act, adding to optimism around clearer U.S. crypto rules.

Bitcoin moved above $72,000 on August 20 as the rally continued. Trump’s crypto push supported sentiment, while the U.S. Treasury’s decision to increase long-term bond buybacks also helped risk assets by easing pressure on yields. With price momentum improving alongside the MVRV and Bull Score, Bitcoin is now showing stronger signs that its prolonged bearish phase could be approaching a turning point.