BofA Survey Shows Dollar Sentiment at 14 Year Low, What It Means for Bitcoin

Highlights:

• Bank of America survey shows investors hold record low U.S. dollar exposure.
• Analysts say Slower growth fears and rate cut hopes push traders bearish on dollar.
• A weak dollar may help Bitcoin, but the link is no longer guaranteed.

Investor sentiment toward the U.S. dollar has shifted sharply bearish in early 2026, according to a new Bank of America (BofA) survey. Analysts say this extreme positioning, which is the most negative in more than a decade, could influence markets ranging from forex to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. 

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The February BofA global fund manager survey found that net exposure to the U.S. dollar has fallen to levels not seen since at least 2012. This means more investors are betting against the greenback, holding fewer dollars in their portfolios compared with other assets. The trend aligns with broader positioning data showing the dollar underweight stance at record levels.

Bank of America’s February survey shows bearish U.S. dollar positions have dropped to the lowest level since 2012, with allocations historically underweight. Since early 2025, Bitcoin has shown an unusual positive correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, with the 90-day…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 17, 2026

BofA Survey Reveals Why Investors Are Reducing U.S. Dollar Exposure

According to BofA strategists, several forces are driving the bearish sentiment. Some investors expect slower United States economic growth and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar’s appeal relative to other currencies. Others are adjusting their portfolios by increasing foreign exchange hedges or reducing exposure to U.S. assets altogether. 

The dollar’s softness also comes even after recent job reports and renewed faith in the Federal Reserve’s independence, underscoring the depth of negative sentiment. Traders now see the greenback’s downside risks outweighing near-term support factors. In the foreign exchange market, data show the U.S. dollar index trading around subdued levels, indicating a broader struggle to post gains against a basket of major global currencies. 

Weak Dollar No Longer Guarantees Bitcoin Rally

Traditionally, Bitcoin’s price and the U.S. dollar index have shown a negative correlation. It means Bitcoin tends to rise when the dollar weakens. That relationship has held over long stretches of market history. However, recent behavior shows the linkage between Bitcoin and the dollar is not always straightforward. For example, sometime in 2025, even as the dollar fell more than 9%, Bitcoin struggled. It shows that other drivers, such as risk sentiment and macro uncertainty, also play key roles in crypto performance. 

The bearish dollar outlook goes beyond Bitcoin. A weaker dollar often lifts commodities priced in dollars, such as gold and oil, because they become cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. It also affects global equities and bond markets as capital reallocates between regions and asset classes.

What Comes Next

Investors are now focused on key economic indicators in the US. Jobs reports, inflation statistics, and comments from the central banks have the potential to influence the market significantly. If the dollar continues to weaken, Bitcoin and other risk assets may see renewed interest. If the dollar rebounds, markets could face short-term pressure. For now, one thing is clear. Investor sentiment toward the dollar has changed sharply. That shift could shape global markets in the weeks ahead.

At press time, the U.S. Dollar Index was trading at 97.14, up 0.5% on the day, according to TradingView data. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was changing hands at $67,731, down 1.01%, based on CoinMarketCap data.

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