Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Likely Headed to $85,000

Highlights:

• Bitcoin price is forming a bullish flag pattern, a signal for a possible upside
• Rally could see Bitcoin rally to $85k short-term
• Expectations around the pause on tariffs could help Bitcoin rally

Bitcoin has rallied by 5.83% today to trade at $81,750. This increase indicates another round of good news for investors, particularly after days of turmoil due to the geopolitical conflict. The positive sentiment was also reflected in the trading volume, which has surged by 25% to $72.54 billion in the day. This jump in trading volumes signals that traders have confidence that the markets could gain their footing again soon. 

Trump’s Tariff Pause Spurs Bitcoin Price Spike

The primary factor triggering the rise in Bitcoin’s value is the announcement made by U.S. President Trump regarding the 90-day pause on tariffs and cutting reciprocal tariffs to 10%. Trump’s statements on the social media platform Truth Social gave Bitcoin the impetus to reclaim its value. In the post, Trump mentioned 125% tariffs on China while extending relief to other nations, claiming that over 75 countries were in trade negotiations with the US.

Trump is hiking tariffs on China to 125%, authorizes a 90 day tariff pause on everyone else pic.twitter.com/BzqhbKvXi5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 9, 2025

The GMCI 30, which tracks the thirty leading digital assets by their market capitalization, recorded an increase of 8%, a bullish sentiment indicating that it stretched well beyond Bitcoin. That said, the market seemed to have rallied in the beginning, but in the later parts of the day, the excitement cooled off. Furthermore, intraday charts indicated that traders have some reservations.  

FOMC Minutes Signal Stagflation Risks – Could Slowdown Bitcoin

Part of this subdued environment can be attributed to more significant economic uncertainties. The minutes released on April 9 concerning the Fed’s meeting in March showcased worries regarding stagflation, where inflation continues at a high rate while economic growth stagnates. The market reacted by expecting a more prolonged waiting period for an interest rate cut. The CME FEDWatch Tool showed a sub-4 % rate by September, dropping probabilities from 97.6% to 69.7%.  

The fluctuating 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is weighing down the overarching sentiment. A declining yield signals a lack of faith in the government’s fiscal future, especially regarding its capacity to service and renew its debt. Economy expert Peter Boockvar stated that around 4.40% are now considered a psychological marker for bond market watchers.

BREAKING: In an epic moment, Fox News commentator Jessica Tarlov pours cold water on celebrations of Trump's tariff pause, explaining that the bond market forced him to cave. "He didn't just flinch, he ducked. There are trillions still lost."pic.twitter.com/rnbT5jihOd

— Really American 🇺🇸 (@ReallyAmerican1) April 9, 2025

Options Market Becomes Neutral on Bitcoin

Crypto derivatives have also been affected by this macroeconomic sentiment. Bitcoin options indicate slightly reduced bearish sentiment, but no sustained bullish sentiment is confirmed. As of April 9, the 25% delta skew – which measures the difference between call and put option premiums – decreased from a bearish 12% to a neutral 3% after Trump’s announcement.

I knew something with china was going to happen. Look at 4/10 deltas
Eyes on 4/10-4/30 👀—-mentions tariffs
BOOOOM https://t.co/vaLzGGaazB pic.twitter.com/55QrJOW9w2

— kellyannlu17🇺🇸🐸⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@kellyannelu) April 9, 2025

While the delta skew suggests that sentiment is at equilibrium, the lack of firm bullish conviction is concerning. This neutrality shows that participants await more precise macroeconomic signals before making aggressive directional trades. 

Turning to the Bitcoin perpetual futures markets, the funding rates have increased, although they remain neutral. The 30-day funding rate increased to 0.9%, marking the highest in six weeks. This still shows some buying pressure, but it primarily comes from retail investors, not institutional investors. 

Tariff Pause Fails to Provide Sufficient Bullish In Initial Bitcoin Rally

Analysts express caution regarding the relief rally, suggesting the primary reasons fueling market uncertainty are still in place. The trade war with China, the ongoing conflict with U.S. debt levels, and uncertain monetary policy continue to loom over risk markets.

Although Bitcoin’s recent surge is remarkable, especially considering its previous association with macroeconomic shocks, maintaining a positive trajectory will likely require more stable economic and policy conditions. A crypto bull market would be triggered by a decline in Treasury yields and increased certainty from the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Forming a Bullish Flag Pattern

Bitcoin is forming a bullish flag pattern intra-day. This indicates that the price is consolidating ahead of a potential uptrend. If a clear uptrend breaks the 24-hour high of $81,589, then a rally to $85k could follow. 

On the other hand, if a correction pushes Bitcoin below $81,515, now critical intra-day support, then a correction to prices below $80k could follow.