Bitcoin Price May Hit Final Bottom in September or October, Grayscale Says

Highlights:

• Grayscale says Bitcoin may have bottomed if the Fed avoids further rate hikes and growth stays stable.
• Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle suggests another decline before a possible September or October market bottom.
• Grayscale says institutional demand and macro conditions may weaken Bitcoin’s traditional halving-driven market cycle over time.

Grayscale Research says Bitcoin may have already reached the bottom of its current bear market if the Federal Reserve avoids further interest rate increases and economic growth remains stable. The asset manager presented the view in a July 22 analysis titled “Bitcoin: Four-Year Cycle or Macro Asset?”

The report compares two common ways of estimating when the Bitcoin bear market could end. The first relies on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which is closely linked to halving events. The second treats Bitcoin as a mature macro asset whose price responds to economic growth, interest rates and Federal Reserve policy.

Grayscale: Bitcoin Bear Market Could Last Until September or October

Grayscale said Bitcoin’s current bear market could continue until September or October if the traditional four-year cycle holds, as previous downturns typically bottomed about a year after the market peak and… pic.twitter.com/w3oxaWTO0M

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 23, 2026

BTC Four-Year Cycle Points to September or October Bottom

Under the four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin may still face another period of weakness. Grayscale noted that Bitcoin has historically reached a market bottom about one year after a cycle peak and around two and a half years after a halving.

Past Bitcoin bear markets have also produced average peak-to-bottom declines of about 80%. If the current market follows that historical pattern, Grayscale said Bitcoin could continue falling before reaching a final low in September or October.

However, the four-year cycle is not a fixed rule. Each Bitcoin market cycle develops under different economic, regulatory and investor conditions. Grayscale summarized its position by stating: “The ‘four-year cycle’ view predicts lower lows for Bitcoin’s price, but a macro perspective suggests the bottom may already be in.”

Fed Policy Could Decide Whether Bitcoin’s Low Holds

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl favors the macroeconomic explanation. He argues that Bitcoin now reacts more strongly to broader financial conditions than it did during its earlier market cycles. “Bitcoin is a macro asset and it trades with macro variables,” Pandl said. These variables include economic growth, real interest rates and expectations about future monetary policy.

Higher interest rates often reduce demand for risk assets because safer investments can offer more attractive returns. They also make borrowing more expensive and can reduce liquidity across financial markets. Therefore, Bitcoin may benefit if the Fed stops raising rates, especially if the economy continues growing without a major slowdown.

Under that scenario, the recent Bitcoin low could remain intact. However, another rate hike caused by persistent inflation would weaken the argument that the bottom has already formed. Slower economic growth could also place renewed pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Institutional Demand May Weaken the Old Bitcoin Cycle

Grayscale does not expect the current downturn to fully repeat earlier Bitcoin crashes. The firm pointed to stronger institutional participation as one reason the market may avoid another decline matching the roughly 80% losses recorded in previous cycles. Bitcoin now trades through regulated spot exchange-traded funds and appears in more institutional investment portfolios. As a result, interest rates, economic data and central bank decisions may play a larger role in Bitcoin price movements than the halving schedule alone.

Bitcoin’s next major move may depend more on macroeconomic and regulatory developments than its traditional four-year cycle. At press time on July 23, BTC was trading near $65,431, down about 0.8% over the previous 24 hours and nearly 48% below its all-time high of $126,080. 

Overall, BTC showed progress as the U.S. CLARITY Act improved crypto market sentiment. However, Fed policy, economic growth and institutional demand will likely determine whether the recent low holds or Bitcoin falls toward a September or October bottom.