Bitcoin Is Trading More Like Gold as U.S. Debt Tops $40 Trillion, Grayscale Says

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is trading more like gold as its connection with major technology stocks continues to weaken.
• Grayscale says rising U.S. debt and large deficits are making scarce assets more attractive to investors.
• Bitcoin’s fixed supply could support its store-of-value appeal if concerns about currencies and government finances continue.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to trade more like gold and less like a high-risk technology asset, according to new research from Grayscale. The change comes as investors pay closer attention to rising U.S. government debt, large budget deficits, and concerns about the long-term value of fiat currencies.

In an August 27 report published on The Stack, Grayscale Research said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from above 60% to roughly 33%. At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has climbed from barely above zero at the start of 2026 to more than 50%.

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. A higher correlation with gold means Bitcoin has recently been behaving more like the precious metal. Meanwhile, the weaker Nasdaq relationship suggests BTC is becoming less tied to movements in large technology stocks.

Grayscale: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold rises above 50% as “debasement trade” returns

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from over 60% to roughly 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from near… pic.twitter.com/gJjTcAYaFH

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 28, 2026

Bitcoin’s Relationship With Gold is Getting Stronger

For much of the past year, Bitcoin behaved more like a risk asset as artificial intelligence enthusiasm pushed technology stocks and other growth investments higher. Grayscale said that pattern now appears to be changing.

The firm believes investors may be focusing again on Bitcoin’s limited supply and its ability to operate without a central issuer. Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, while its issuance follows rules built into the network. Unlike national currencies, a government or central bank cannot simply decide to create more Bitcoin.

Those features have long supported Bitcoin’s comparison with gold. Both assets are scarce, while investors can hold them outside the traditional fiat currency system. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl linked the changing market behavior to renewed demand for scarce assets. Bitcoin’s monetary independence and store-of-value properties could become more attractive when investors become concerned about government finances and the future purchasing power of currencies.

U.S. Debt Brings Debasement Trade Back Into Focus

The shift comes as U.S. federal debt has climbed above $40 trillion. Grayscale also pointed to ongoing budget deficits and pressure in long-term Treasury markets. These concerns are bringing the so-called debasement trade back into focus.

The debasement trade refers to investors moving toward scarce assets when they fear that traditional currencies could lose purchasing power over time. Gold has historically played that role. Bitcoin supporters argue that its fixed supply gives it similar characteristics.

However, Bitcoin has not always behaved like gold. Its strong connection with technology stocks over the past year showed that traders were still treating BTC partly as a higher-risk investment. The latest correlation data shows that relationship can change with market conditions. If concerns around U.S. debt, fiscal deficits, and currency purchasing power remain strong, Grayscale believes Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets could face a more favorable market environment.

Grayscale is not the only major firm making this point. BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick recently said rising U.S. debt could make Bitcoin more attractive over the long term. In an August 26 CNBC interview, he said concerns about debt and budget deficits can support assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

BlackRock’s Mitchnick Says $40 Trillion U.S. Debt Strengthens Bitcoin’s Long-Term Case

BlackRock digital-assets head Robbie Mitchnick said rising U.S. debt and persistent fiscal deficits are returning as a core market risk, pushing some investors toward alternative stores of… pic.twitter.com/1JWhZpn21Y

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 27, 2026