XRP Average Returns Drop to 12-Year Low as Price Recovery Looms

Highlights:

• Santiment reports that XRP has recorded its lowest average investor returns in 12 years.
• The readings suggest that investors’ confidence in XRP has dropped significantly.
• XRP spikes 4.4% in the past 24 hours as massive volumes of XRP leave exchanges. 

Recent on-chain data suggests XRP could be nearing a turning point. In an X post on Thursday, crypto analytical intelligence firm Santiment reported that while XRP may still face short-term price declines, investor losses have reached record levels. This is a pattern that has often come before major market rallies.

Santiment backed its latest analysis with data from XRP’s 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios. These metrics measure whether investors are, on average, sitting on profits or losses. For context, the 30-day MVRV has dropped to -45%, while the 365-day MVRV sits at -47%. These figures suggest that both recent buyers and long-term holders are, on average, well below their purchase prices.

✍️ TL;DR: XRP Ledger average returns historically low, implying relief rally is probable
📊 Metrics Used: 30-Day & 365-Day MVRV
🔗 Link to chart: https://t.co/z3mjkJzILe

📉 XRP’s average trading returns are sitting at historic pain levels. Its 30-day MVRV is -45% and its… pic.twitter.com/Q5vmHrJ0Sc

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 2, 2026

In-Depth Data Interpretation

Santiment described XRP’s  30-day and 365-day MVRV data as the weakest combined reading ever recorded since the token started trading almost 12 years ago. It also shows that investors’ confidence in XRP has fallen significantly amid rising market fear and disappointment.

The analytical intelligence firm added that XRP has not reached its lowest price yet, as it could decline further if the broader market continues to dip. However, past market cycles show that price recoveries have often followed periods of heavy investor losses. This is mostly because many weaker holders must have dumped their XRP holdings, which reduces selling pressure. 

Santiment explained:

“Historically, the best setups often appear when the crowd is feeling maximum pain (both on-chain and sentiment-wise), not maximum confidence.”

Interpreting the analysis from a risk-reward perspective, Santiment noted that the current market conditions offer excellent buying opportunities for investors seeking to increase their XRP holdings. “Buying XRP here comes with much less risk than average because so much downside has already been absorbed by other traders,” the analytical firm added. 

XRP Price Spikes as the Asset’s Average Returns Drop Significantly

At the time of press, the crypto market has spiked 2.1% in the past 24 hours. It has a market cap of approximately $2.2 trillion and a trading volume of about $81.46 billion. XRP is changing hands at approximately $1.1 following a 4.4% upswing in the past 24 hours. 

The asset has a market cap of approximately $68.66 billion and a trading volume of about $1.74 billion. In the past week, XRP’s price added 6.4% and traded between $1.05 and $1.11. However, in the past month and year, the asset has dropped 10.8% and 51.6%, respectively.

Massive Volumes of XRP Exit from Exchanges

On July 2, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha reported that XRP reserves on two of the world’s most watched exchanges have declined to multi-month lows. On Binance, the world’s largest exchange by trading volume, XRP reserves dropped from 2.78 billion XRP on May 12 to  2.61 billion XRP on July 2. This represents a 6% decline, marking Binance’s lowest XRP level since March 2026.

Separately, XRP’s reserve on Upbit dropped from approximately 6.515 billion XRP on May 30 to 6.457 billion XRP on July 2. The new reserve levels marked Upbit’s lowest level since April 2026. Overall, roughly 228 million XRP were moved out of the two exchanges, suggesting a possible accumulation trend that could trigger an XRP price rally. 

The analyst explained that reserve declines do not necessarily guarantee a price surge. “The key question is whether the reduced balances are followed by sustained demand and tighter spot-market liquidity,” he added. 

Hundreds of millions of $XRP have left major exchanges over the past several weeks.

Binance reserves are down over 170 million $XRP since mid May. Upbit is down around 58 million $XRP. Coinbase is showing a higher share of whale sized withdrawals.

That means coins are moving…

— MRCΛULIMΛN (@mrcauliman) July 2, 2026