Bitcoin Could Enter an Accumulation Phase Soon, VanEck Says

Highlights:

• VanEck says Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its correction as capitulation signals stay active.
• Bitcoin holds near $63,500 even as long-term holders increase selling pressure and trading activity remains weak.
• Rising U.S. spot Bitcoin ETP inflows could help Bitcoin move into an accumulation phase in coming months.

VanEck believes Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its current correction after several market indicators moved into levels linked with past periods of capitulation. Bitcoin has also held near $63,500 despite weak trading activity and continued pressure from long-term holders.

The investment manager shared the outlook in its Mid-August 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck, published on August 18. VanEck said eight of its 12 capitulation signals are currently active, while all 12 entered their capitulation zones at some point during the past three months. Bitcoin closed August 11 at $63,549, down just 0.3% from a month earlier. Its 30-day realized volatility also fell to 27.2% on an annualized basis. That is far below Bitcoin’s long-term average of around 80%, according to VanEck.

VanEck Sees Bitcoin Moving Toward an Accumulation Phase

VanEck said the current data suggests Bitcoin has already experienced what appears to be price capitulation and could be entering an accumulation phase. Capitulation usually describes a period when heavy selling pushes prices lower before the market begins to stabilize. Bitcoin potentially found a bottom near $58,500 on June 30, according to the report. The asset has since traded in a relatively narrow range, reaching a low of $62,265 on July 13 and a high of $66,509 on July 21.

VanEck compared the current decline with four previous Bitcoin market cycles. Previous bear phases lasted an average of around 11 months from peak to maximum drawdown. Bitcoin is now entering the tenth month of its decline from the last October peak. However, VanEck did not give an exact date for a market bottom. Based on previous cycles, the firm said an accumulation phase could begin between September and November.

Historical performance after capitulation signals has also been mixed. VanEck found that periods with eight to 12 signals active did not outperform Bitcoin’s normal returns over 90-day or 180-day periods. Results were stronger over one year, although the firm warned that the historical sample is small.

Bitcoin ETP Inflows Support Price Stability

Demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products has improved. VanEck reported around $663 million in net inflows over the previous 30 days, equal to roughly 10,400 BTC at current prices. The previous month recorded about $2.4 billion in net outflows.

At the same time, long-term holders have been moving more Bitcoin. Coins held for more than one year fell by about 356,000 BTC over 30 days to 11.84 million BTC. Their share of circulating supply also slipped to 59.1%, falling below 60% for the first time in months.

VanEck said rising movement among older coins would normally be viewed as bearish. However, Bitcoin’s ability to hold its range despite that pressure, low trading volumes and wider economic concerns have helped support the firm’s view that the correction may be entering its later stages.