CryptoQuant Founder Warns Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Over

Highlights:

• Ju predicts that Bitcoin’s bull cycle may be over due to weak price response.
• Realized Cap growth contrasts with stagnant Market Cap, signaling bearish market conditions. 
• High sell pressure prevents even large Bitcoin purchases from driving price rallies.

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that Bitcoin’s current price behavior suggests that the bull cycle may be over. In his analysis on X, he out that while capital continues to flow into the market, it no longer significantly affects prices. This pattern usually signals the start of a bearish trend. His analysis is based on the Realized Cap metric, which calculates the total capital invested according to blockchain transactions.

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Ju explained:

“But when sell pressure is high, even large purchases fail to move the price. There are simply too many sellers. For example, when Bitcoin was trading near $100K, the market saw massive volumes, but the price barely moved.” 

Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a range, with its last trade above $90,000 on March 7. By the end of last year, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $100,000 mark, but the price quickly dropped. Since then, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend, even falling below $80,000. President Trump’s tariff announcement added pressure to the crypto market, causing most cryptocurrencies to suffer alongside Bitcoin.

#Bitcoin bull cycle is over — here’s why.

There’s a concept in on-chain data called Realized Cap. It works like this: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it's considered a "buy," and when it leaves, it's treated as a "sell." Using this idea, we can estimate an average cost… pic.twitter.com/xDHRin8N1K

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 5, 2025

Realized Cap vs. Market Cap

Ju forms his prediction based on the relationship between Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and its market capitalization. Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s value by the price at which each BTC was transferred into wallets. Conversely, market capitalization calculates value by multiplying the circulating BTC supply by the current market price

The CryptoQuant CEO emphasizes that market capitalization alone is not the most accurate way to track the Bitcoin bull market. Ju explains that when selling pressure is low, even small Bitcoin purchases can drive market capitalization to new highs. He also notes that MicroStrategy has benefited from this low selling pressure, increasing the paper value of its BTC holdings.

When sell pressure is high, even large Bitcoin purchases fail to drive a price rally. For instance, MicroStrategy’s purchase of 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion did not trigger the same rally as previous acquisitions. On-chain data shows that while Bitcoin’s Realized Cap is increasing, market capitalization continues to decline, signaling bearish sentiment. Ju points to Bitcoin’s failed attempt to break above $100,000, where massive trading volumes couldn’t push the price higher, signaling strong sell-side activity.

He concluded:

“In short: when small capital drives prices up, it’s a bull market. When even large capital can’t push prices upward, it’s a bear. Current data clearly points to the latter. Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months—so a short-term rally seems unlikely.”

BTC is currently trading around $82,924, with a price drop of over 0.61% in the last 24 hours. During this time, trading volume has decreased by 57%, reflecting reduced participation from traders and investors amid significant market volatility.

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