VanEck Says Bitcoin Is Nearing a Cycle Bottom as Market Conditions Improve

Highlights:

• VanEck says Bitcoin may be nearing a cycle bottom after falling sharply from its recent peak.
• The firm’s market indicators suggest conditions are improving, although a clear Bitcoin recovery has not started yet.
• VanEck remains positive on Bitcoin long term but warns that past market cycles may not repeat exactly.

Bitcoin may be getting closer to the bottom of its current market cycle, according to investment manager VanEck. The firm believes the latest downturn is starting to show signs of exhaustion after BTC lost nearly half its value from its recent peak.

In an August 13 market update, VanEck noted that Bitcoin had fallen from around $125,000 to the low-$60,000 range. Bitcoin was trading near $63,000 at the time of writing. Despite the steep decline, VanEck does not believe Bitcoin’s long-term outlook has changed. Instead, the firm sees the drop as similar to the major corrections Bitcoin has experienced during previous market cycles. “These cycles are features, not structural breaks,” VanEck said.

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VanEck Sees Bitcoin Moving Closer to a Market Bottom

VanEck based part of its outlook on its GEO framework, which tracks three areas of the crypto market: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage and on-chain activity. At present, two of those indicators are neutral, while ecosystem leverage is showing more constructive conditions. VanEck said the overall picture points to signs of “near-bottoming.”

That does not mean Bitcoin has definitely reached its lowest price. However, the improving signals suggest that some of the pressure behind the recent sell-off may be starting to fade. Because of that, VanEck believes investors who remain bullish on Bitcoin over the long term could consider building exposure gradually instead of trying to time the exact bottom.

The firm also linked the current downturn to Bitcoin’s well-known four-year market cycle. Bitcoin halvings cut the mining reward in half, reducing the amount of new BTC entering circulation. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has often gone through strong rallies followed by deep corrections. Still, VanEck made it clear that historical patterns are not guaranteed to repeat.

VanEck Remains Bullish on Bitcoin Long Term

VanEck’s latest comments are in line with its wider 2026 investment outlook. In its third-quarter outlook published in July, the firm again highlighted Bitcoin as a long-term investment theme. VanEck said investors should “view bitcoin as a long-term allocation” while being prepared for sharp price swings along the way.

The company also believes Bitcoin could continue benefiting from concerns around government debt, currency weakness and broader monetary conditions. These are some of the same themes that have supported demand for assets such as gold.

For investors who do not want to hold BTC directly, VanEck pointed to its Bitcoin ETF, HODL, as one way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency through traditional markets. However, the firm remains cautious about calling an exact bottom. Bitcoin could still face further volatility if economic conditions weaken or selling pressure returns.

VanEck is not alone in seeing signs that Bitcoin’s downturn may be nearing its end. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently said Bitcoin could be near the bottom of the current crypto winter, pointing to its weaker reaction to negative news. He also expects growing demand from Bitcoin ETFs and wealth management platforms to support the market over time.

LATEST: 📊 Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin will end the year "significantly higher," citing positive ETF flows, OG buying, Treasury market intervention, and bad news no longer moving prices. pic.twitter.com/FOmlYcXncF

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