Galaxy Says CLARITY Act Has Just 10% Chance of Passing This Year

Highlights:

• Galaxy now sees only a 10% chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year.
• Political disputes and a tight Senate schedule have steadily pushed Galaxy’s outlook down from 75%.
• With Congress moving slowly, the SEC and CFTC are pressing ahead with separate crypto policy efforts.

Galaxy Research has cut its outlook for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year. In an August 14 research note, the firm lowered the bill’s passage odds to just 10%, citing political disagreements and limited time left on the Senate calendar.

Galaxy said the bill has increasingly become “much more about politics than policy.” The research firm pointed to unresolved government ethics rules, pressure from banks and continued debate over protections for crypto software developers. These issues have made it harder for Senate Majority Leader John Thune to secure the 60 votes needed to move the legislation forward.

🚨GALAXY SLASHES CLARITY ACT IN 2026 ODDS TO JUST 10%!

Galaxy Research cut the chances of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 all the way down to 10% as the Senate calendar collapsed and no clear path to 60 votes emerged before the August recess.

With the bill stalled, the SEC… pic.twitter.com/J9CSVWjM7h

— Crypto Banter (@crypto_banter) August 15, 2026

CLARITY Act aims to create a clearer U.S. regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. It would set rules for crypto businesses and clarify oversight roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Galaxy’s CLARITY Act Odds Have Fallen From 75% to 10%

Galaxy’s outlook has changed several times as the bill moved through Congress. Its May 12 analysis placed the chance of passage at 55%. After the Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation 15-9 with bipartisan support on May 14, Galaxy raised its estimate to 75%.

However, timing soon became a bigger concern. Galaxy lowered the odds to 60% in a June 5 client alert, later published on June 9. The firm said the Senate was running short on time, while disagreements over ethics rules and illicit-finance provisions were still unresolved.

The outlook weakened again on June 26. Galaxy cut its estimate to 50%, citing the lack of a floor date and growing competition from other Senate priorities. By July 24, the firm had reduced the odds further to 30% after a combined Senate text failed to secure visible support from enough Democrats. Galaxy’s latest August 14 estimate now stands at only 10%. The firm said passage would require an unusually fast political agreement once senators return from recess.

SEC and CFTC Move Ahead as CLARITY Act Stalls

The slowdown is also putting pressure on U.S. regulators to act without waiting for Congress. Galaxy said the SEC has been preparing two major crypto initiatives called Reg Crypto and the Innovation Exemption. Reg Crypto would create a pathway for primary crypto asset issuance, while the Innovation Exemption could allow certain tokenized securities to trade through decentralized finance systems. However, the SEC has delayed the initiatives more than once following industry pushback.

Meanwhile, the CFTC has been moving to strengthen its authority over prediction-market contracts. Galaxy sees the regulatory activity as a sign that federal agencies may increasingly rely on their existing powers while broader crypto market structure legislation remains uncertain.

CLARITY Act Still Faces a September Senate Test

The CLARITY Act still has a chance to move forward. On August 8, Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633. That move could bring the bill to a Senate vote after lawmakers return on September 14. It will need 60 votes to advance.

Leader Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to Cal. #423, H.R.3633, Clarity Act.

— Senate Cloakroom (@SenateCloakroom) August 8, 2026

Galaxy, however, does not expect an easy path. Senators have little time in September, and several issues are still holding up an agreement. These include ethics rules, stablecoin rewards, and enforcement provisions. With those disputes still unresolved, Galaxy said getting the CLARITY Act passed this year would now take a “circus trick.”