Bitcoin Price Recovery Gains Strength, but Analysts See Major Hurdles Ahead

Highlights:

• Glassnode and Coinbase say Bitcoin is recovering as more investors return and confidence in the market improves.
• Bitcoin could face selling pressure between $89,600 and $93,700, where investors previously bought 1.7 million BTC.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $7 billion in Q3, while long-term holders largely kept their coins.

Bitcoin (BTC) entered an early recovery in the third quarter of 2026, but strong selling pressure may limit its next move. Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional say improving investor sentiment and fresh demand helped the market recover. However, a large amount of Bitcoin was previously bought above September’s prices, creating a possible barrier to further gains.

In its October 15 Charting Crypto Q4 2026 report, Glassnode said Bitcoin had moved beyond the period when prices were finding a bottom. Coinbase’s research showed that BTC rose 43% during the third quarter and ended September near $83,600. The firm remains positive about the broader outlook for the final quarter, while warning that market conditions remain difficult.

吴说获悉，Glassnode 与 Coinbase Institutional 联合发布 2026 年第四季度《Charting Crypto》报告，认为比特币在第三季度已从筑底阶段进入初步复苏，对第四季度整体持偏积极看法，但短期仍需谨慎。报告显示，BTC…

— 吴说区块链 (@wublockchain12) October 16, 2026

Bitcoin Holders Show More Confidence as Sentiment Recovers

The report found that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) rose from 0.11 to 0.38. The metric compares unrealized gains and losses across Bitcoin holdings. It has returned to the range Glassnode calls “Optimism/Anxiety,” but remains below levels associated with stronger market confidence.

The share of Bitcoin supply held at a profit also increased from 46% to 71%. More holders were back in profit as prices recovered, although the reading did not suggest an overheated market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin that hadn’t moved for more than a year rose by around 340,000 BTC. Many long-term investors continued holding through the rally instead of selling their coins.

New trading activity also picked up. Supply moved within the previous three months rose 16% to 2.8 million BTC. Glassnode said long-term holders became modest net sellers in August, showing that not everyone held through the recovery.

Bitcoin Price Faces a Large Selling Zone Above $89,600

The researchers identified approximately 1.7 million BTC that last moved between $89,600 and $93,700. These prices form an important resistance area because some holders may sell if Bitcoin returns to their purchase price. Glassnode’s data also showed several layers of potential support below September’s market price. Still, the large concentration of coins above the market could slow another rally.

Another valuation measure, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), stood at 1.56. This compares Bitcoin’s market value with the estimated cost of coins investors hold. The researchers said valuations had returned to more normal levels without reaching the extremes seen near previous market peaks.

ETF Demand Improves Despite Higher US Interest Rates

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted around $7 billion in net inflows during the third quarter. These funds allow investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through traditional investment accounts.

The recovery came despite tighter US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in September, while the 10-year Treasury yield ended the quarter at 5.29%. Higher rates can make riskier assets less attractive and restrict the money available for investment.

The report also found broader activity in Ethereum. Ether outperformed Bitcoin by roughly 20% during the quarter, while the total value locked in Ethereum decentralized finance rose from $37 billion to $53 billion. Glassnode and Coinbase see reasons for further recovery, but they expect tight liquidity and selling pressure to remain important challenges through the fourth quarter.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price was trading near $82,000, up around 1% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.