Experiencing a robust beginning this month, Bitcoin has surged by $50,000, surpassing the impressive market cap of $1 trillion and registering a substantial increase of over 30% in the last three weeks. The notable rise in Bitcoin has piqued the market’s interest, sparking speculation on when it will achieve a new all-time high.
Meanwhile, the previous peak of $69,000 set in 2021 is now only 32% away, with various bullish factors converging. Notably, five significant elements, namely the Halving, ETFs, Easing, Elections, and Treasuries, could propel Bitcoin to new record highs before the arrival of summer.
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#Bitcoin has made history
For the first time ever, BTC has closed a weekly candle above the .618 FIB retrace from cycle high to cycle low prior to the halving: https://t.co/URAGEtuWKJ pic.twitter.com/MuhXMdrHF9
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) February 19, 2024
IntoTheBlock’s analysis indicates an 85% likelihood of Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high in the next six months, according to Lucas Outumuro, the head of research.
The Factors Explained
Outumuro commences with the eagerly awaited Bitcoin halving event in April, poised to halve BTC miner rewards. He expresses confidence in miners’ readiness for this event, suggesting that Bitcoin may hit an all-time high just a month after the halving. Additionally, the halving is anticipated to alleviate selling pressure, given the substantial reduction in BTC’s issuance inflation rate post-event.
The second catalyst revolves around the infusion of funds from recently approved Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), attracting approximately $4 billion in new investments within a month of their launch. This significant influx has the potential to amplify Bitcoin demand, mainly as supply issuance decreases post-halving.
The third factor hinges on the Federal Reserve’s expectations of interest rate cuts, potentially commencing as early as March. Traders are factoring in these rate cuts, anticipating heightened liquidity in financial markets that could favor assets like Bitcoin and stocks.
The fourth factor underscores the upcoming U.S. presidential election, speculating that the Federal Reserve might take preemptive measures to bolster the economy before the event, potentially influencing market dynamics.
Finally, Outumuro anticipates global companies accumulating Bitcoin in the coming months, coupled with the increasing accessibility facilitated by spot ETFs. This trend of companies adopting Bitcoin for their treasuries, particularly in Asia and South America, is predicted to expand globally, bolstered by the legitimacy of ETFs in the United States.
#Bitcoin cycles are never the same, but it often rhymes:
1) Weekly RSI completing a bottoming movement, from lower highs, lower lows to higher highs and higher lows
2) Following the cycle top, The first three RSI peaks > 50 will have a strong reaction at resistance (either… pic.twitter.com/OW59mXPjdL
— venturefoundΞr (@venturefounder) February 19, 2024
History of Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin Halvings have consistently driven BTC prices to all-time highs the following year. The first halving transpired in November 2012, propelling Bitcoin from a peak of $13 to $1,152 within one year, culminating in its pinnacle 13 months post-halving. Subsequently, the second halving occurred in July 2016, witnessing Bitcoin’s price surge from $664 to $17,760 by December 2017, reaching its zenith one year and five months after the halving.
The third halving unfolded in May 2020, witnessing Bitcoin’s price ascend from $9,734 to $67,549 between April and November 2021, ultimately peaking one year and six months post-halving. Anticipating the fourth halving in April 2024, it is projected that Bitcoin’s price will ascend from the highest point in U.S. dollars, with the peak anticipated one year and five months after the halving.
Bitcoin Outpaces the Stock Market
Bitcoin recovered from the 2.8% decline on February 13, spurred by a CPI report revealing a higher-than-expected annual inflation rate of 3.1%, surpassing economists’ 2.9% projection. In response, the S&P 500 experienced a 1% drop, and the Nasdaq 100 declined by 2.4%.
Following the market’s digestion of the U.S. CPI data, Bitcoin and stocks saw an upward trend. On February 13, BTC surged by over 5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showed increases of 0.32% and 1.4%, respectively.
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