Jiang Zhuoer Predicts Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Near $42K to $44K in Late 2026

Highlights:

• Jiang Zhuoer predicts Bitcoin could bottom between October and December 2026, near $42,000 to $44,000.
• His model uses MSTR’s mNAV, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, and weak crypto market sentiment signals.
• Jiang says he is selling spot assets and shorting until the expected bottom period.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP, one of China’s largest Bitcoin mining pools, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) may reach the bottom of its current bear market between October and December this year. In a Thursday post on X, he said his model points to a possible bottom price range of $42,000 to $44,000, based on MSTR’s mNAV, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, and recent weakness in market sentiment.

Jiang’s view is primarily based on Strategy’s mNAV, a market-based measure tied to the company’s Bitcoin holdings. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, holds a large amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Its mNAV compares the company’s share price with the value of Bitcoin backing each share. A reading above 1 usually shows that investors are paying a premium for the stock. A reading below 1 suggests weaker demand and more negative market sentiment.

MSTR mNAV Nears Previous Cycle Low

Jiang based his forecast on MSTR’s mNAV, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, and current market sentiment. MSTR refers to Strategy, the company known for holding a large amount of Bitcoin. Its mNAV compares the company’s stock price to the value of the Bitcoin underlying each share. A reading above 1 shows that investors are paying a premium. A reading below 1 shows weak sentiment.

《对本轮BTC熊市 见底时间&价格 预测》
【重要长期预测贴】

MSTR的mNAV已跌到0.72了【图1，图3】，
（mNAV=股价/每股含BTC价值 比值，代表美股资金对MSTR的市场情绪，高于1为泡沫高估，低于1为悲观低估）
接近上一轮牛市2022年5月11日的最低点0.7【图2】。
根据最近STRC大幅脱锚等市场情绪事件，… https://t.co/V5s0Q2S2Wy pic.twitter.com/o9fqE9U80z

— 江卓尔_莱比特矿池 (@Jiangzhuoer2) June 24, 2026

Jiang said MSTR’s mNAV has dropped to 0.72. He noted that this is close to the 0.7 level seen on May 11, 2022. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near $31,017. However, Jiang said an mNAV bottom does not always mean Bitcoin has already reached its price bottom. He used the last cycle as an example. In 2022, MSTR’s mNAV bottomed in May, but Bitcoin did not reach its final low until November 21, 2022. Bitcoin fell to around $15,476 at that time.

That created a gap of about six months between the mNAV low and the Bitcoin price low. Jiang said a similar pattern may happen again in the current cycle. Jiang also pointed to recent weakness around STRC as another sign of poor market sentiment. Based on these signals, he said the current area may be close to the lowest mNAV level of this cycle.

Four-Year Cycle Supports Late 2026 Forecast

Jiang also used Bitcoin’s four-year cycle model in his prediction. He compared Bitcoin’s price movement to a bouncing ball. Each bounce becomes smaller over time. In the same way, he believes Bitcoin’s volatility becomes lower as its market value grows.

Based on this model, Jiang said Bitcoin could reach a cycle bottom around October 31, 2026, near $44,016. After adding the possible six-month delay between mNAV and Bitcoin’s price bottom, he placed the expected bottom window between October and December 2026. Jiang said the likely bottom price could be between $42,000 and $44,000. He added that the model is better at predicting timing than exact price levels.

Jiang Defends His mNAV Method and Turns Bearish on Crypto

A user later questioned Jiang’s mNAV method and said the official EV-mNAV calculation had not fallen below 1. Jiang replied that he disagreed with the official method because he believes convertible bonds and preferred stock should not be included in the Bitcoin-per-share calculation. However, he said traders can still use the official method if they compare it with historical lows using the same measure.

Jiang’s forecast also follows his recent trading move. In an earlier X post, he said he sold 50% of his ETH spot holdings at $1,738. He said the move came after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting. According to Jiang, some Fed officials expected rate hikes, which made him more cautious on crypto prices. For now, Jiang said his short- to medium-term strategy is focused on selling spot assets and shorting. He said he would consider buying spot assets and going long near the expected bottom period.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $61,599, dowm 1.69% in the past 24 hours.