Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50-50, Down From 60%

Highlights:

• Galaxy cut CLARITY Act passage odds to 50-50 as Senate floor time tightens sharply.
• Thorn says timing, not bill content, is the main reason behind Galaxy’s downgraded estimate.
• Ethics rules and developer protections remain unresolved, but Galaxy still sees real support for passage.

Galaxy Digital has lowered its outlook for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year, pointing to a crowded Senate calendar and slow public progress on the bill. Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, shared the update on X on Sunday and said the firm now sees the bill’s chances at 50-50, down from 60% on June 5.

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The CLARITY Act is one of the main crypto market structure bills in the United States. It is designed to give digital asset firms clearer rules and define how crypto markets should be regulated. For crypto companies, investors, and developers, the bill matters because it could reduce legal uncertainty across the industry.

Thorn said the downgrade is mostly about timing, not the content of the bill. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote on May 14. It has been on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1 as item No. 423. However, no floor date has been set, and no motion to proceed has been scheduled.

i'm again reducing my odds of CLARITY act passage in 2026, mostly due to the shortening calendar and growing competition for floor time from other items

still think we'll see a vote in july – but can it get to 60? we hope it can but it's not obvious at the moment that it will https://t.co/fnbamkUzXp

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 26, 2026

Tight Senate Schedule Raises Risk of CLARITY Act Delay

According to Thorn, the bill still needs several steps before it can become law. Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture staff are still working to combine their versions of the bill. After that, Senate leaders would need to bring the bill to the floor, allow debate, handle amendments, and then send the final Senate version back to the House.

The issue is that there isn’t much time left. The recess period for the Senate has been set to start at the end of July. According to Thorn, Senator John Thune from the Senate majority leader will have to declare floor time at the beginning of July to save the project. Otherwise, if the schedule is not declared soon enough, the bill can be delayed until September.

Thorn said private talks are still happening, which is a helpful sign. But he also warned that quiet discussions are not enough to move the bill forward. Lawmakers still need to agree publicly on the final text and give the bill a clear place on the Senate floor.

The bigger issue is that the Senate already has a packed schedule. On June 24, President Donald Trump canceled the signing of a bipartisan housing bill and said he would not sign it until Congress passes the SAVE Act. That housing bill had already passed both the House and Senate with strong support.

Galaxy said this adds more pressure to an already tight calendar. Thorn also noted that lawmakers still have to deal with Section 702 of FISA, which lapsed on June 12, as well as the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act.

That leaves less room for crypto legislation. Every week spent on other bills makes it harder for the CLARITY Act to get a vote. Thorn said Senate floor time is now the hardest thing to secure, and the CLARITY Act is not first in line.

Galaxy Says CLARITY Act Still Has Support but Needs Key Fixes

Galaxy also pointed to several policy issues that remain unsettled. One of the biggest is ethics language, especially rules around conflicts of interest. Thorn said Senator Chris Van Hollen’s conflict-of-interest amendment failed in committee by an 11-13 vote. He added that Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker still want stronger ethics rules before they can support the bill.

Illicit finance is another concern. Some lawmakers want changes to the developer-protection language in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Thorn also said Galaxy expects at least two Republican senators to vote no, naming Josh Hawley and Rand Paul.

But Galaxy has not ruled out passing this year. Thorn stated that the bill has real support, the committee vote was meaningful, and that staff level work seems to be ongoing. If the lawmakers release a combined Banking-Agriculture text, work out the ethics and developer-protection issues, or announce July floor time, the odds of Galaxy getting a boost will increase even more.

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