XRP Price Could Fall to $0.98 as Whale Wallets Decline, Analyst Warns

Highlights:

• XRP stayed near $1.29, but analyst Ali Martinez warned that a break below support could deepen losses.
• The number of major XRP wallets dropped by twelve, although the change does not prove selling.
• Crypto exchanges now hold about 11.05 billion XRP, leaving traders watching for further selling pressure.

XRP could fall toward $0.98 if it loses support at $1.26, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez. He pointed to fewer large XRP wallets and more tokens held on exchanges as signs of potential selling pressure. The deeper price target would mark a drop of about 24% from $1.29, although Martinez’s forecast depends on support breaking first.

In a series of October 25 posts on X, Martinez shared on-chain data attributed to Santiment and outlined the price levels he is watching. His analysis focuses on major XRP holders, exchange balances and a trading channel that has formed since August.

Large XRP Wallets Decline as Exchange Balances Increase

According to Martinez, the number of XRP Ledger wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP has fallen from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks. That is a decrease of 12 wallets in a group often monitored for its potential influence on the market.

Crypto traders commonly call these large holders “whales.” Their activity can affect prices because they control substantial amounts of a token. Still, a lower wallet count does not necessarily prove that every departing wallet sold its holdings. Addresses can change for other reasons, including transfers between wallets.

Meanwhile, XRP held on cryptocurrency exchanges rose from 11.003 billion to about 11.05 billion tokens. The difference is approximately 47 million XRP, which Martinez rounded to about 50 million. He said exchange balances also stayed elevated compared with the previous week.

More XRP on exchanges can make it easier for holders to sell their tokens. If that supply reaches the market without enough buyers, prices may come under pressure. However, exchange inflows don’t confirm those tokens have already been sold.

3/5 At the same time, $XRP held on exchanges has risen from 11.003 billion to around 11.05 billion and has remained elevated over the past week.

That’s roughly 50 million more XRP on trading platforms. If large holders continue moving tokens to exchanges, more supply could… pic.twitter.com/dBUS2bXWKU

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026

XRP Price Faces a Key Test at $1.26

Martinez identified $1.26 as a key support level for XRP, which has traded within a price channel since August. He warned that XRP could fall to $1.11 if it drops below this level. A further decline could take the price to $0.98, about 22% below $1.26. At the time of writing, XRP traded around $1.29, up 1.56% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The price remained above the $1.26 support level.

Martinez also pointed to fewer large XRP wallets and rising exchange balances as possible signs of selling pressure. However, his lower price targets depend on XRP breaking below $1.26.

Meanwhile, US spot XRP ETFs recorded around $4.3 million in net inflows during the week of October 19–23, according to SoSoValue. The inflows followed $1.84 million in withdrawals the previous week, which ended a 13-week inflow streak. The inflows suggest that investor interest continued despite concerns about XRP’s price outlook.

Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, traded around $80,500 on October 25, down 0.29% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.