Bitcoin Buy-and-Hold Returns Slow to 2.3% Annually Over Five Years, Says 10x Research

Highlights:

Bitcoin investors who bought the cryptocurrency five years ago and held it have earned an annualized return of just 2.3%, according to research firm 10x Research. Although Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered strong gains over the past decade, those who entered the market more recently have seen much smaller returns. The firm now questions whether buying and holding Bitcoin through every market cycle remains the best approach.

In a November 10 report, titled Bitcoin: Why Buy-and-Hold Stalled and What Comes Next, 10x Research examined the cryptocurrency’s five-year performance and explained why investors should pay more attention to changing market conditions.

Bitcoin buy-and-hold returned 63% a year over the past decade. An investor who bought five years ago has made just 2.3% a year.

The difference isn’t luck. Bitcoin is now a $1.5 trillion asset, and moving it requires institutional and sovereign capital. Those investors respond to… pic.twitter.com/3A3UwyG1A1

— 10x Research (@10xResearch) November 11, 2026

Bitcoin’s Five-Year Returns Raise Questions About Holding Strategy

According to 10x Research, buying Bitcoin and holding it for the past five years has produced an average annualized return of 2.3%. This means a $10,000 investment would have grown to approximately $11,204 over that period, excluding fees and taxes. The figure is much lower than the returns long-term investors have enjoyed over the past decade.

The firm said Bitcoin’s market has changed, making it harder for investors to rely on the same approach that worked in earlier years. Rather than simply holding BTC regardless of price movements, 10x Research believes investors should follow market trends, investment flows, and broader financial conditions when making decisions.

Its latest report also examines Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which traders use to track price momentum. The research firm uses market data to assess when conditions favor a bullish, bearish, or neutral outlook. However, its detailed trading strategies are available only to paying subscribers.

10x Research Says Bitcoin Investors Need to Watch Market Changes

The report comes as Bitcoin continues to struggle following its recent price decline. Investors who purchased BTC at higher prices are now facing losses, while those who have held the cryptocurrency for several years have seen their overall returns weaken. 10x Research argues that investors should regularly review the market instead of assuming Bitcoin will always recover quickly after a downturn.

The firm has also introduced a dedicated section on its Market Updates platform where subscribers can check its latest outlook and supporting research. According to 10x Research, these reports will be updated whenever its assessment of market conditions changes significantly.

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Move 47,300 BTC at a Loss

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported growing selling pressure among investors who bought Bitcoin more recently. In a November 11 post on X, Darkfost said short-term holders transferred around 48,500 BTC to exchanges over the previous 24 hours. Of that amount, approximately 47,300 BTC was moved at a loss.

Since October, bitcoin:native has gone through a distribution phase, leading to a correction of roughly 15%.

After a phase of profit-taking by STHs, losses are now dominating.

Over the past 24 hours, STHs sent 48 500 BTC to exchanges, of which 47 300 BTC were sent at a loss.… pic.twitter.com/wMeVrJngrV

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) November 11, 2026

The analyst said Bitcoin has fallen roughly 15% since October. Earlier in the decline, short-term holders were mostly taking profits, but recent exchange transfers show that losses now dominate. Darkfost described the latest activity as one of the strongest signs of short-term holder capitulation in recent months. However, moving Bitcoin to an exchange does not necessarily mean the coins have been sold.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $73,925, down 0.51% over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.