Trump-Led Bitcoin Rally Could Face Setback Before January FOMC Meeting: 10x Research

Highlights:

• 10x Research predicts the Trump-led Bitcoin rally may encounter obstacles ahead of the January FOMC meeting.
• The expert forecasts BTC to stay within $97,000 to $98,000 by January.
• He advises monitoring stablecoin issuance and ETF inflows for Bitcoin trends.

The crypto market, especially Bitcoin (BTC), has recently surged. Analysts attribute the rise to speculation and positive sentiment, calling it a “Trump rally.” However, experts warn that the BTC could face a drop before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in late this month.

In a Jan. 5 report, 10x Research’s founder Markus Thielen shared his outlook for Bitcoin in January, stating that its movement depends on inflation data and Federal Reserve policies. He expects a strong start to the month, driven by optimism before the January 15 release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. “A favorable inflation print could reignite optimism, fueling a rally into the Trump inauguration,” Thielen said of a potentially positive CPI result. He said that this momentum may wane. The market is likely to retreat somewhat ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 29.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows an 88.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate between 425 and 450 basis points after the FOMC meeting. BTC’s history with FOMC decisions has been volatile. For example, it dropped nearly 15% to $92,800 after the December 18 meeting. This happened when the Fed lowered its forecasted rate cuts from five to two. Thielen expects inflation to decline this year. However, he believes the Federal Reserve may take time to adjust its policies.

Institutional investor activity will be crucial in shaping Bitcoin’s market. Thielen suggests that key indicators, such as stablecoin issuance and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, should be closely monitored. He expects Bitcoin’s price to remain between $97,000 and $98,000 by the end of January.

Our #Bitcoin/Crypto Game Plan for January – This Indicator Signals a BTC Rebound

👇1-12) The crypto trading environment remains mixed following the December FOMC meeting and the subsequent holiday season. However, opportunities for returns persist in specific areas. For… pic.twitter.com/otODXb7GgZ

— 10x Research (@10x_Research) January 5, 2025

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Growth Outlook

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, predicts Bitcoin will dip to $89,000 before bouncing back to $125,000 by the end of Q1. He also suggests Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by late 2025 or early 2026. This estimate is more conservative compared to VanEck and Bitwise, which predict Bitcoin could hit $180,000–$200,000.

In a recent post on X, Robert Kiyosaki, author of ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad,’ reaffirmed his bullish view on Bitcoin. He predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $175,000 or even $350,000 this year, citing increased market demand and its growing role as an investment.

MY PRICE PREDICTION
for BITCOIN 2025:

$175,000 to $350,000

Happy New Year

— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) January 2, 2025

In December, Robert Kiyosaki warned of a global economic depression, citing downturns in Europe, China, and the U.S. He urged people to protect their wealth by investing in gold, Bitcoin, and silver. Last month, he predicted Bitcoin could reach $350K in the new year.

Ethereum May Struggle to Deliver Meaningful Rallies

Markus Thielen believes Ether might not be the best investment for the 2025 bull run. He thinks it could deliver weaker returns compared to the Trump-led Bitcoin rally. Thielen stated in a Dec. 30 market report, “While the possibility of a new catalyst cannot be ruled out, we wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to deliver meaningful rallies next year.” Thielen referred to Ethereum as a “poor medium-term investment.” He expressed concerns about its lack of meaningful catalysts. Additionally, he noted a declining growth rate in active validators.