Tom Lee Says Crypto Is Rising Despite Fed and CLARITY Act Uncertainty

Highlights:

• Tom Lee said crypto is rising despite hawkish Fed expectations, high oil prices, and regulatory uncertainty.
• He believes another interest-rate increase is unlikely because underlying inflation pressures have weakened significantly in recent months.
• Lee said clear federal crypto rules are essential for banks, tokenization, stablecoins, and broader institutional growth.

Crypto prices are showing strength even as investors face uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and the CLARITY Act, according to market strategist Tom Lee. In a CNBC Power Lunch interview on July 27, Lee said Bitcoin and Ethereum were rising despite several factors that would normally pressure digital assets.

Lee noted that markets have been preparing for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. However, he believes the chance of another interest-rate increase is low. “I wouldn’t expect them to raise rates,” Lee said.

In his view, weaker shelter inflation and limited wage pressure suggest that the deeper inflation trend has softened. He said current price pressure mainly comes from tariffs and oil. Both factors could be temporary and may not require the Fed to begin another rate-hiking cycle.

.@fundstrat's Tom Lee on @PowerLunch today: crypto is turning money into software, and once that happens, loyalty points reputation could start behaving a lot like money — especially in the hands of AI agents.

Tomorrow, July 28 at 11AM ET, he sits down with @virtuals_io… pic.twitter.com/gRYOO8rGBI

— Fundstrat Direct (@FundstratDirect) July 27, 2026

Crypto Defies Pressure From Fed and Oil Prices

Lee said the Federal Reserve may reduce its balance sheet instead of increasing its main policy rate. This process is called quantitative tightening. It removes money from the financial system as the Fed allows bonds to mature without replacing them. According to Lee, this approach could place some pressure on economic growth without deliberately pushing the economy into a sharp slowdown. Lower oil prices could also reduce inflation concerns if geopolitical talks lead to a lasting settlement.

Crypto has continued to rise while semiconductor stocks have weakened. Lee said the gap between the performance of the two markets has become unusually wide. Although the movements may not be directly connected, crypto’s strength has challenged the expected market reaction. “Crypto is actually rising,” Lee said, despite concerns about high oil prices and a potentially hawkish Fed.

Ethereum Strengthens as CLARITY Act Odds Fall

Lee also pointed to Ethereum’s improving performance against Bitcoin. The ETH-to-BTC ratio has risen even as prediction markets lowered the CLARITY Act’s chance of passing in 2026 to around 30%. He described the legislation as a major step toward creating a national crypto regulatory framework. Lee said large banks and asset managers need consistent federal rules before expanding tokenized assets and stablecoin payment systems.

Different state-level requirements could slow investment and make financial institutions more cautious. Lee compared the current period to the creation of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 1934. Before a national framework existed, financial companies had to manage different rules across states. “Crypto is having that 1934-type moment,” Lee said.

Official Senate Banking Committee material says the CLARITY Act would establish clearer boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. It would also introduce disclosure rules, investor protections and standards for digital asset companies.

Crypto Growth Continues Beyond the United States

Lee said other regions are already developing clearer digital asset rules. He named Europe, Japan and Russia as examples of markets moving forward with crypto legislation. Therefore, he believes the industry can continue growing outside the United States even if Congress delays the bill. Clear rules could also encourage banks, asset managers and payment companies to invest more heavily in blockchain-based financial services.

However, the CLARITY Act still faces political obstacles. On July 27, reports said Senate leaders had postponed immediate floor action while focusing on other legislation. The delay supports Lee’s view that passage remains uncertain, although negotiations could continue.