QCP Says Bitcoin Struggles Below $66K as Strategy Concerns Limit Upside

Highlights:

• Bitcoin remains below $66,000 despite a stronger risk appetite after easing recent U.S.-Iran market tensions.
• QCP says Strategy’s dividend funding concerns may keep pressure on Bitcoin’s short-term performance outlook.
• Fed policy remains in focus as inflation worries grow after the recent geopolitical shock.

Bitcoin is still struggling to join the wider market rally, even as risk assets move higher after easing geopolitical fears. In its Market Colour report published on Wednesday, QCP Group said Bitcoin remains stuck below the $66,000 level while broader markets are gaining support from improved macro sentiment.

QCP said the weekend agreement between the United States and Iran has helped calm markets. The firm said both sides reached a memorandum of understanding, which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The area is one of the world’s most important shipping routes, especially for energy markets.

The news helped lift risk appetite. According to QCP, S&P futures opened more than 100 points above Friday’s close and moved past all-time highs. Crude oil also opened lower and traded below $75 as traders started to price in a lower risk of long-term energy disruption.

Geopolitical Risk Eases but Has Not Disappeared

QCP said the agreement does not remove geopolitical risk completely. However, it reduces one of the most serious short-term risks for global markets. The firm noted that the United States and Iran are expected to lift their blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and reopen important shipping lanes.

After the signing of the MOU, both sides are expected to enter a 60-day negotiation period. QCP said the talks will focus mainly on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and the unfreezing of Iranian funds.

For crypto investors, the calmer backdrop should normally support Bitcoin and other digital assets. Bitcoin often benefits when traders feel more comfortable taking risks. However, QCP said Bitcoin has not fully followed the stronger mood across global markets.

QCP: Market Worries Strategy May Need to Sell More Bitcoin to Pay Dividends

QCP said the US-Iran MOU has eased energy disruption risks, but BTC remains capped below $66,000 amid concerns that Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to fund dividend payments. Strategy has bought… pic.twitter.com/1yCk4I7RhC

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 17, 2026

Bitcoin Faces Pressure From Strategy Overhang

QCP linked Bitcoin’s weak performance partly to concerns around Strategy. The firm said investors worry that Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to fund dividend payments. The concern follows the company’s repurchase of $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes.

QCP said Strategy has raised around $200 million by selling MSTR shares and continues to buy Bitcoin with the proceeds. The firm added that this has extended Strategy’s runway to about 7.5 months before it runs out of cash to pay dividends. Still, the issue may continue to weigh on Bitcoin in the short term. QCP said this overhang could stop Bitcoin from fully benefiting from the improving macro environment.

Markets Watch Fed Policy as Inflation Stays High

QCP also pointed to the Federal Reserve as another key market focus. The firm said Kevin Warsh is taking the stage at his first Fed meeting as Chair. Markets had earlier viewed him as more dovish, but the backdrop has changed. QCP said the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed headline inflation to 4.2% year over year, the highest level in more than three years. As a result, markets are watching whether policy will stay restrictive for longer.

For now, QCP sees a more supportive macro environment, but Bitcoin still has a specific hurdle to clear. If Strategy continues to raise cash and reduce pressure around its dividend runway, Bitcoin may have a better chance to catch up with the wider market rally. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,976, down 2.12% in the past 24 hours.