JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Will Outperform US Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade

Highlights:

• JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to deliver 10% annual compounded returns over the next 10 to 15 years.
• The bank expects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks, gold, and real estate investments over that period.
• However, JPMorgan forecasts 55% annual Bitcoin volatility and warns that actual returns could differ significantly from expectations.

JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin (BTC) to deliver higher long-term returns than major US stocks and gold. The firm has added Bitcoin to its annual market forecasts for the first time, estimating a 10% compounded yearly return over the next 10 to 15 years. However, the bank also warned that Bitcoin remains far more volatile than traditional investments.

According to JPMorgan’s October 19 announcement and its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the new forecast covers Bitcoin alongside stocks, bonds, gold, and other investment assets. The report is designed to help investors plan for the longer term, rather than predict short-term price movements.

JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outperforming U.S. Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade

J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the investment arm of U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase, included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time, projecting a 10% compound annual return over… pic.twitter.com/CMlF2xAgb3

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 20, 2026

JPMorgan Forecasts 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns

JPMorgan’s projection puts Bitcoin ahead of several widely held assets. It expects US large-cap stocks to return 7.5% annually, gold 5.5%, and US real estate investment trusts (REITs) 8.2%. That gives Bitcoin a 2.5-percentage-point lead over large US stocks and a 4.5-point advantage over gold. The figures refer to compound returns, which account for how gains and losses affect an investment over several years.

The bank’s 2027 outlook is its 31st annual edition. It provides long-term estimates for more than 200 asset classes and draws on research from economists, portfolio managers, and analysts. Until this year, the report had not included a separate return range for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s 55% Volatility Forecast Raises Concerns

Despite its higher expected return, Bitcoin carries much greater risk in JPMorgan’s model. The bank estimates annualized Bitcoin volatility at 55%, compared with 18% for US large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold. Volatility measures how sharply an asset’s price can rise or fall.

JPMorgan also assigns Bitcoin an arithmetic average annual return of 20.9%. That figure is different from the 10% compounded return. An arithmetic average looks at yearly results separately, while compounding reflects the effect of those results on an investment held over time.

Large price drops can reduce an investor’s returns over several years, even if some years produce strong gains. As a result, the two Bitcoin return estimates should not be treated as competing price predictions. The asset manager has not added BTC to its main portfolio allocation models. Its official report says Bitcoin remains outside its main covariance matrices, which examine how different investments move in relation to each other.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin BTC was trading around $81,494, down 0.92% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitwise CIO Reacts to JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Outlook

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast in an October 20 post on X. He described Bitcoin’s inclusion as a change in how major financial institutions assess the cryptocurrency and pointed to its leading projected return.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan expects a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds to return 7% annually. The bank also raised its US large-cap stock forecast from 6.7% to 7.5%, citing stronger company profits and new technology.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026

JPMorgan stresses that its projections are planning assumptions, not promised returns or investment recommendations. Actual results could differ sharply, particularly for an asset with Bitcoin’s history of large price swings.