Bitcoin’s Recovery Hopes Clash with Historical Trends: Analyst Warns of Possible Downturn
The world’s number one digital asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is trading below the $70K price mark and recording losses across several price indices amid a sudden market pullback ravaging the crypto market for the past few days.
According to BTC’s price readings on the popular crypto assets’ price tracker site, CoinGecko, the world’s most sought-after crypto asset, is changing hands at about $67,900, reflecting a 2.5% plunge from the previous 24 hours. BTC’s 24-hour to-date price index revealed minimum and maximum selling prices, ranging between $67,781.38 and $70,126.83.
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Interestingly, Bitcoin’s present selling price indicates that the coin is selling at lower support levels, which Ali Martinez specified in one of our previous news articles. While Martinez’s previous assertion does not cover potential impacts, which could emanate from the flagship crypto trading below its support levels, basic crypto knowledge makes us understand that the most likely implication could mean further price declines.
Historical Trends Not In Sync With BTC’s Recovery Claims
Contrary to the sentiments that have been making rounds in the crypto space, which seem to revolve around Bitcoin’s recovery in the face of the current market’s bearish outlook, a recent analysis by renowned market watcher Ali Martinez has indicated BTC could face further price drops; a prediction that tallies with the coins historical price pattern.
According to the market expert, since BTC graced the crypto space, it has struggled in the third quarter (Q3) of many years, suggesting that this year might not turn out differently from the traditional trend. Taking to his verified handle, Martinez stated, “Beware! Historically, #Bitcoin has struggled in Q3, with an average return of 6.49% and a median return of -2.57%.”
Beware!
Historically, #Bitcoin has struggled in Q3, with an average return of 6.49% and a median return of -2.57%. pic.twitter.com/6IJtHcK4ZL
— Ali (@ali_charts) June 10, 2024
Previous Two Years Saw BTC Record Declines In Q3
According to the above chart displayed in Martinez’s analysis, Bitcoin has registered six price declines in Q3. Intriguingly, the coin reflected declines of about 11.54% and 2.57% in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Notedly, based on the chart, the last time BTC registered declines for two consecutive years was in 2014 and 2015, completing a three-consecutive years cycle in 2016.
Should this year’s Q3 conclude in price declines, it will mirror Bitcoin’s 2014 – 2016 previous price patterns, which could impact the highly anticipated bull run by delaying or slowing down its momentum. However, it could afford investors more time to keep accumulating their cryptocurrencies of choice.
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Market And Risk Assessment Indexes Supporting BTC’s Recovery Claims?
Having deduced facts about the propensity of BTC’s recovery not going as speculated and predicted by many market experts and other crypto faithful, assessing and analyzing other Bitcoin’s relevant market variables seems ideal before taking a final stance.
Contrary to the conventional BTC’s outlook for an extended period on Coincodex, some changes have occurred, projecting the pioneer crypto asset towards a bearish trajectory. Noteworthily, while Bitcoin’s “Fear and Greed Index” reflected greed, its volatility has changed from high to medium at 3.76%. On the other hand, sentiment has now geared towards neutral from bullish.
In addition, while BTC currently bears no risk, the coin has not done well relative to other crypto assets. Despite outperforming Ethereum, about 41% of the top-performing crypto assets have better market actions than Bitcoin, indicating a drop from its previous statistics of outpacing over 60% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies.
In conclusion, despite speculations about BTC’s recovery potential, the coin’s market variables have indicated otherwise by tilting towards a bearish outlook for the world’s most valuable asset, compounding investors’ situation.
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Chinedu Agbakwusi
Chinedu Agbakwusi is a news writer and editor for Crypto2Community. He is a crypto enthusiast with vast experience across several crypto-related projects and platforms. Chinedu has been following the development of the crypto market for several years, and he is optimistic about its potential to democratise the global financial system. He hopes to be a reliable plug for reporting trends and breaking down complex concepts to his readers. Agbakwusi's previously written for several crypto news including Times Tabloid, UPay, while also contributing over the years to many others leading media publications.
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