Bitcoin Sees Diverging Holder Behavior While Key Metrics Reflect Unclear Market Direction

Highlights:

• Long-term Bitcoin holders are adding to their positions while hoping for a price surge.
• Futures trading volume rises as traders bet on higher prices, but increased leverage brings more risk.
• Spot demand and ETF inflows are slowing, which may limit Bitcoin price recovery in the near term.

Long-term Bitcoin holders have started to accumulate again, while short-term holders continue to sell amid ongoing market uncertainty. CryptoQuant, an analytics firm, reports that the net position change for long-term holders has turned positive. The change marks the first positive reading since the last market peak and indicates that experienced investors are slowly increasing their exposure to Bitcoin.

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Behind the Scenes: What Bitcoin Smart Holders Are Doing Right Now

“If long-term participants continue increasing their positions, while short-term supply gets flushed out. This setup may serve as a constructive base for future price recovery.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/Wph6fKleXN

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 22, 2025

Previously, these long-term investors had been decreasing their holdings, but current activity suggests a change in tactics. Their accumulation suggests a more planned approach to entering the market at a weak moment. Meanwhile, short-term holders are still selling off their assets. Their net position change is still negative. The change shows that short-term holders reacted to the recent price action and market fear.

This divergence between short-term and long-term holder behavior has appeared during previous cycles and often came before market recoveries. While long-term holders are gradually adding to their positions, short-term investors appear more reactive, exiting their positions at lower prices.

Traders Fuel Futures Activity as Leverage Increases

The futures market has also recorded a major rise in activity. According to Axel, traders have opened a total of 57,000 BTC worth of futures contracts over the last 3 days as the market recovers.

Over the last three days, positions totaling 57,000 BTC were opened in the futures market, worth $5.345B at the current rate. This is the largest liquidity increase in the past year. pic.twitter.com/VE08w0ZvhQ

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 23, 2025

CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin long positions have grown over 36.69%, up to $75.93 billion in trading volume in the past day. Short positions fell to $70.50 billion. 

This movement implies that the traders anticipate the market to pick up even higher. With the trade leverage increasing, however, the market is becoming more fragile. A chain of liquidations could occur in case prices fall steeply, which could make the market more volatile. The current flow of capital into futures suggests that traders are confident that they will be able to cash in on future price increases despite the risks.

Weak Spot Demand and Lower ETF Inflows Signal Challenges Ahead

Despite active futures markets, spot market demand has eased. Data points out that the demand for BTC is down by 146,000 BTC over the past month. Accordingly, this number is below the 311,000 BTC lost in the March drop. The broader demand trend, however, is pointing to a downward move, recording an overall decline of 642,000 BTC, the weakest since October 2024. If the fall in spot demand proceeds, analysts caution price stability is at stake.

Bitcoin spot demand is still falling, but not as fast.

Demand momentum just hit its most negative level since Oct ’24.

Until both recover, sustained upside remains unlikely. pic.twitter.com/qYx6pryfHC

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 22, 2025

At the same time, institutional interest has weakened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have recorded limited activity since late March. Now, daily flows oscillate between -5,000 BTC and +3,000 BTC. However, net inflows were over 8,000 BTC per day in the early part of 2024. During the same period last year, they had acquired about 200,000 BTC. The cooling interest from institutional buyers shows a sharp difference. Bitcoin’s recovery is not certain without stronger spot demand and ETF inflows.

Despite the divergence in market signals, Bitcoin is on an upward trajectory lately. The coin is trading at $93,847, a 5.72% increase in the past day. In addition, the trading volume is up 65.52% to $60.26 billion, while the market capitalization is at $1.86 trillion.

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