Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Likely Headed to $74K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin bears are in control after bulls failed at intra-day resistance
• Correction driven by weakness across the financial markets
• The sustained drop could see Bitcoin retest $74k or even lower prices

Bitcoin is in the red today, tracking the broader declines in financial markets, thanks to the ongoing geopolitical and economic turmoil. The flagship cryptocurrency’s trading price at the time of writing was $77,400, a decrease of 2.26% in the day. 

Bitcoin’s trading volume has also dropped in the day, down by 18.26% to $57.79 billion. This indicates that investors are moving away from active trading and waiting for a clearer direction. It could also mean that investors are expecting a price rebound soon. 

Trump’s Trade Policies Rattle Bitcoin Price

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy primarily catalyzes this volatility. On April 2, he signed an executive order placing tariffs on all purchases from other countries. By April 9, he had increased the tariff on China, the world’s second-largest economy, to 104%.

Wrong Mr. Trump. China isn’t paying a 104% Tariff. Americans are paying it. If you still think China is paying it then you should be impeached for stupidity. pic.twitter.com/t43cGG14QP

— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) April 9, 2025

These tariffs are increasingly becoming a source of panic for traders worldwide. Economic uncertainty and fears regarding a possible recession have entirely overtaken the market.

Analysts Believe Bitcoin Could Compete with the Dollar

While this has led to pain, some analysts believe it could lead to the mass adoption of Bitcoin. Analysts believe Bitcoin could be a long-term substitute for fiat currencies. Jeff Parks, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Invest, stated on X that he now thinks Bitcoin has greater chances of outliving the US dollar – something he earlier thought was purely theoretical. 

JUST IN: $12 billion asset manager Bitwise CIO said "I think the answer to who wins in this currency war is #Bitcoin"

BTC is "set up to rally significantly" 🚀 pic.twitter.com/g6Ouu4wAbS

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) April 8, 2025

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley furthered this viewpoint by pointing to declining trust in the dollar and the weakness of other currencies globally. He indicated that gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, poses difficulties in storage and transport. “You wind up buying Bitcoin,” he said.

Bitcoin analyst Saifedean Ammous recently stated that the U.S.’s key issue is its reliance on expanded monetary policy, not on a specific trading partner. He proposed adopting hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin instead of fiat currencies. Blackrock CEO Larry Fink has also highlighted Bitcoin as a hedge against uncontrolled and unchecked fiat inflation.

This is very telling. He thinks China has more to lose from a trade war because they have a trade surplus, so they'd lose more money. He doesn't see the US losing more goods as being as big a problem. This might make sense if imports were frivolous, but a lot are critical capital… https://t.co/shqXOqMNFM

— Saifedean Ammous (@saifedean) April 8, 2025

Echoing the argument of declining investor confidence, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped 5.84% year to date to 102.193. Against expectations, the DXY has weakened, and analysts argue that tariffs have weakened rather than boosted the dollar. 

Bitcoin Faces Downside Pressure Despite Its Potential

Despite Bitcoin’s long-term appeal, it remains susceptible to short-term market movements and risk-off sentiment. The ongoing decline is driven by the S&P 500 index, which experienced a staggering 14.7% decline from April 2 to April 7. Bitcoin’s price decline reinforced the narrative of risk assets moving in lockstep during periods of economic stress.

Longer-term volatility is expected, but analysts believe a lift in strategic assets like Bitcoin is coming. Many investors view Bitcoin’s decentralized structure and finite supply as safeguards against inflation and fiscal mismanagement. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Bears Regain Control

Bitcoin bears have regained control after bulls failed at the $77,672 resistance. If bears gain momentum, the key level to watch for Bitcoin would be the 24-hour support at $74,982.

If there is an accelerated selloff and Bitcoin loses the $74,982 support, a price correction as low as $70k could follow in the short term. Rising anxiety as the world appears to be entering a full-blown trade war could trigger such a fall. 

Recap

Bitcoin is on course to test prices as low as $74k or lower in the short term. The heightening tensions around the latest round of tariffs make such a possibility plausible. Nonetheless, the odds look good for Bitcoin in the long run. The ongoing trade war could impact the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, which could trigger the global adoption of Bitcoin since it is a neutral currency.