Bitcoin Price Forecast – Why Sudden Surge of Negative Macros Could Send BTC to $70k

Highlights:

• Bitcoin has lost the $84,587 support intraday 
• Drop through the $84,587 support could see BTC hit $70k soon
• Selling pressure is driven by a hard shift into risk-off mode in the markets 

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp correction in the last 24 hours after a prolonged period of consolidation. When going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $82,465.5, down by 6.44%. In the same period when Bitcoin’s price has been experiencing a sharp correction, trading volumes have surged. Bitcoin’s 24-hour volumes have shot up by 82.9% to stand at $80.42 billion. 

The surge in Bitcoin trading volumes is an indicator of fear-driven selling. It also points to the mass liquidation of Bitcoin longs in the same period. Data shows that in the last 24 hours, cryptocurrency liquidations have hit a high of $1.57 billion. Bitcoin alone accounts for $800 million of these leveraged liquidations. Looking ahead, there are a series of factors that could send Bitcoin to even lower prices in the short to medium term. 

Possibility of a Hawkish Fed Chairman Sending Bitcoin Lower

One of them is the fear of the person who could soon become the next Federal Reserve Chairman. For a while, the markets have been expecting a dovish replacement for Jerome Powell. However, the latest information hitting the market is that President Trump could be about to announce Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman.

Warsh favors a small Federal Reserve balance sheet. With such a person at the helm of policy decisions, the Federal Reserve would likely prioritize a cut in liquidity and restraints in fiscal policy. This is perceived as counterproductive to risk-on assets such as Bitcoin.

That’s because cryptocurrencies perform best when there is a strong liquidity flow into the cryptocurrency market. If Warsh is confirmed as the next governor, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could go into a state of decline in the foreseeable future. Naturally, this means long-term holders are likely to start exiting their positions, a factor that could send Bitcoin even lower in the foreseeable future. 

To those few who were not present and active during 2010 QE era…..

Why Kevin Warsh would seal the fate !!!

He resigned from Board of Governors in protest to QE and excessive Money Printing !!!!

LOL at last one sane person coming in if confirmed !!!

Biggest reason of him… https://t.co/bLAc3xlKls pic.twitter.com/vx6s3xsMNd

— 🇮🇳 VKA (@vka27) January 30, 2026

Fears of Another Government Shutdown Send Bitcoin Tumbling

Besides the possibility of a hawkish person taking over as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, there is renewed risk for another government shutdown. Data from prediction markets shows that over 60% of participants expect another government shutdown.

The US is heading toward another potential government shutdown.

Budget negotiations are stuck, political pressure keeps building, and neither side looks ready to compromise.

With elections, spending battles, and deep polarization, the risk is rising fast.

On Polymarket, the… pic.twitter.com/MstCI2bQEd

— Lorenzo2K (@CryptoLorenzo2k) January 30, 2026

As a result, markets are reacting to price in the risk. Naturally, highly volatile risk-on assets are feeling the most pressure under these circumstances. If indeed the shutdown happens, Bitcoin could see a significant slide, one that could send BTC prices as low as $70k in the short to medium term.

Iran War Risk Adds Pressure as BTC Eyes $70K

The geopolitical environment is not helping the situation for Bitcoin either. There is growing speculation that the US could be planning to attack Iran. The fears around such an attack shot up on January 28 after President Trump posted on Truth Social that a massive Armada was moving fast towards Iran.

Such an attack, if planned for regime change, could plunge the Middle East into a major conflict that could hurt oil prices and international shipping routes. By extension, this could see capital flee risk-on assets. For Bitcoin, which is already showing weakness, this would mean a drop to much lower prices in the foreseeable future. 

🚨BREAKING: President Trump just released this statement regarding the USS Abraham Lincoln strike fleet and Iran:

"A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier… pic.twitter.com/rUfMTYtXnt

— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) January 28, 2026

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Loses Critical Support

After the selloff in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has lost the $84,587 support. If the selloff continues, the key level to watch would be the November 21, 2025, low of $80,621; a correction to prices as low as $70k could follow.

On the other hand, if the November 2025 low holds, two scenarios could play out. The first is a possible consolidation between $84,587 and $80,621 in the short term. On the other hand, if there is a strong rebound that pushes Bitcoin through $84,587, now resistance, a rally back to $90k could follow. Of these scenarios, BTC dropping to $70k is more likely due to a confluence of negative macro factors.