Bitcoin Price Could Fall to $73K After US Midterm Elections, Analyst Warns

Highlights:

• Analyst Ali Martinez warns Bitcoin could face another price decline around the November 3 US midterms.
• Bitcoin could test the $73,000 support level, where renewed buying may help the cryptocurrency recover from losses.
• Another analyst warns that high oil prices may add pressure on Bitcoin by limiting market liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC) could face fresh selling pressure around the November 3 US midterm elections, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez. He points to sharp declines during the previous four midterm cycles and says $73,000 is the key level to watch if the market turns lower.

In an October 23 post on X, Martinez argued that Bitcoin’s election-year history deserves attention. However, he did not suggest that voting itself caused earlier crashes. Broader market conditions, investor sentiment, and liquidity also influenced those moves.

https://t.co/sT0b0k3eDK

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 23, 2026

Bitcoin’s Past Midterm Election Returns Raise Questions

Martinez cited Bitcoin corrections of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022. All four periods saw significant declines, although his post did not specify a common measurement window for those percentages. He also examined Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter returns during the same years. BTC gained 391% in the final three months of 2010 but fell 16.70% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022.

Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter with losses in three of the last four US midterm election years. Only 2010 saw gains, when Bitcoin was still relatively new. With the next elections set for November 3, investors are watching to see whether BTC will decline again.

Bitcoin Price Could Test $73,000 Support Level

Martinez identified $73,000 as Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis, or the average purchase price of coins held by more recent investors. Traders use this figure to judge whether those buyers are sitting on gains or facing losses.

If Bitcoin moves down to that area, Martinez expects an important test of demand. Buyers defending the level could help the market recover. A failure to hold it would leave the bullish outlook under greater pressure. However, the cost basis is an indicator, not a guaranteed price floor. Bitcoin can trade below it even when buyers have defended that level before.

Martinez is not treating $73,000 as an automatic buying opportunity. Instead, he said he would look for signs that sellers are losing momentum and demand is returning before considering a long trade.

High Oil Prices Add Another Risk for Bitcoin

In a separate October 23 post, market analyst Darkfost warned that expensive oil could also weigh on Bitcoin. He pointed out that Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel as geopolitical tensions and attacks disrupted energy supplies. Higher oil prices also raise transport and production costs, making inflation harder to control. According to Darkfost, this could slow economic growth and leave less money flowing into risky assets like Bitcoin.

🗞️ Bitcoin faces a tough macro backdrop as Brent holds above $100

With persistent tensions in the Gulf and intensifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, the price of Brent is holding above $100.

This cost is passing through to economies worldwide: inflation is becoming… pic.twitter.com/8iyk8SSc96

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) October 23, 2026

Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin has often faced pressure when oil prices rise for a long period. In contrast, Bitcoin has sometimes recovered when oil prices fall sharply. However, he said oil prices alone cannot predict Bitcoin’s next move. He also noted that Bitcoin gained some relief when oil prices eased briefly in July, but Brent crude soon started rising again. His main concern is how higher oil prices could affect the wider economy.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $81,603, up about 0.19% over 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.