Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why BTC Could Drop to $85K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is in a weak rebound towards the $93,775 – 96,567 resistance level
• Failure to breach this resistance zone could send BTC to $85k or lower
• Risk-off macro environment could drive Bitcoin selloff 

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the red today, continuing a downtrend that has lasted weeks. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $91,086, down by 4.36% in the day. However, even as the price is going down, Bitcoin trading volumes are rising. In the last 24 hours, trading volumes have shot up by 57.26% to stand at $118.13 billion. 

This is an indicator that fear is on the rise and that capital is exiting Bitcoin in large amounts. Such could be an indicator that Bitcoin could be headed much lower in the short to medium term. There are several factors that could play into pushing Bitcoin lower in the short term.

Increasingly Risk-Off Macro Environment Could Send Bitcoin Lower

One of them is a macro environment that is increasingly turning risk-off. At the moment, Bitcoin is going down, but other risk-on assets such as stocks are going down as well. This is due to fears that the Federal Reserve may no longer be in a hurry to cut interest rates. The narrative is that the recent weak employment numbers may be the new normal. 

The Fed is dithering on December rate cuts and the market knows it's a mistake. Once again abandoning the lower part of the K. That's the real reason for the selloff—not inflation data, not geopolitics. Policy error in real time. Classic Fed. pic.twitter.com/Tk68HULGMN

— Neil Winward (@NeilWinward) November 18, 2025

As such, the Federal Reserve could opt to keep interest rates as they are in an attempt to manage inflation. This means there is no real incentive for investors to get into risk-on assets. This is especially so for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. If the narrative that no more rate cuts are coming soon, then BTC could see a drop to prices below $85k in the short term. 

US ETF Outflows Adding to Downside Pressure

The rising fear around a continuation of the Bitcoin slide is already evident in its ETFs. Latest data shows that in the past month, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows of over $3 billion. Not only is this putting pressure on the price, but it is also affecting the narrative that has driven Bitcoin price action in the last two years. The narrative was that institutional inflows were the new anchor for Bitcoin, and are a testament to the asset’s maturation.

Bitcoin ETFs with $250m in outflows, $3b out in past month, about 2.5% of total assets, 97.5% hanging in there. Still $23b YTD which is amazing. People forget just how much lifting was done 18mo prior to selloff. All told not too bad considering the "extreme fear" mood. pic.twitter.com/KyrVQhGppC

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 18, 2025

As such, if institutions start pulling out, then retail money could start panic selling as well. Such panic selling could be made worse by the fact that Bitcoin has recently breached the $100k support level. This has triggered fears that in the short term, Bitcoin could be headed much lower, potentially to its last cycle high of $69k. 

Bitcoin Charts Point to a Death Cross Forming

Technical analysts are also adding to the bearish sentiment around Bitcoin. There is a growing consensus from technical analysts that Bitcoin has made a death cross. A death cross, which is when a short-term moving average cuts a longer-term one from above, usually precedes a selloff. In the case of Bitcoin, the death cross has happened at a time when the price is showing weakness at $90k. 

Such technical pointers could drive more investors to sell their Bitcoin, creating a self-fulfilling technical analysis prophecy. Overall, there is currently a confluence of factors that all point to more correction, at least in the short term. 

URGENT: The Bitcoin Death Cross Isn’t What It Seems

• Fear is peaking right as liquidity is set to return
• Every past Death Cross appeared before major reversals
• Market looks more like exhaustion than collapse

This setup signals a BEGINNING, not an END.

See Comment, Full… pic.twitter.com/D49RU9y5Zf

— Jessica Gonzales (@lil_disruptor) November 14, 2025

BTC Could Drop to $85K as Bitcoin Attempts Retest of Supply Zone

After an earlier drop to $89k, Bitcoin is attempting a rebound, albeit with little bullish momentum. If bulls sustain the rebound, the key level to watch will be the $93775 to $96,567 resistance zone.

A rally through this zone could send BTC to $100k in the short term. On the other hand, if the Bitcoin rebound fails at $93,775, then a correction to prices as low as $85k could follow. Of these two scenarios, a BTC drop to $85k or lower is more likely. That’s because the macro environment is turning risk-off, and this could negatively affect Bitcoin in the short to medium term.