VanEck Warns Bitcoin Firms of Rising Risk as NAV Gap Narrows

 Highlights:

• VanEck’s Sigel warns Bitcoin firms against issuing shares when trading close to NAV.
• He advises buybacks and limits on stock sales to avoid shareholder dilution.
• Semler’s falling stock shows BTC bets don’t always boost company market value.

VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel has sounded the alarm for Bitcoin-holding firms. In a post on X dated June 16, he advised companies to adopt more disciplined financial strategies as their stock prices get closer to net asset value (NAV). He stressed that issuing more shares when the stock is trading near its NAV might end up harming current shareholders rather than helping them.

NAV means the total value of the BTC a company owns, divided by the number of its shares. For example, if a company holds 1,000 Bitcoins and has 10,000 shares, each share is backed by 0.1 Bitcoin. When a firm’s stock trades well above its NAV, it can sell new shares to raise money and buy more BTC. This can increase value for all shareholders.

But when the stock trades near NAV, selling more shares spread the same Bitcoin across more shares. This lowers the value of each share — a process called dilution. “That is not capital formation. It is erosion,” Sigel wrote. He urged firms to set limits on share issuance before their premium disappears, to protect long-term investor value.

No public BTC treasury company has traded below its Bitcoin NAV for a sustained period.

But at least one is now approaching parity.

As some of these companies raise capital through large at-the-market (ATM) programs to buy BTC, a risk is emerging: If the stock trades at or near…

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) June 16, 2025

Steps to Protect Value if Stock Nears NAV

Sigel shared a few steps companies can take to protect value if their stock drops too near that level. First, companies should stop selling shares in the market if their stock stays below 95% of their NAV for ten days in a row. Second, if Bitcoin prices go up but the company’s stock doesn’t follow, they should consider buying back their own shares. Lastly, if this price gap continues, a full business review should be launched to explore other strategies.

Semler Faces Pressure as Bitcoin Bet Fails to Boost Stock

Sigel said that so far, no public company has stayed below the value of its Bitcoin (NAV) for a long time. However, he pointed out that Semler Scientific, a medical tech company based in California, is now getting very close to that level. The company started buying Bitcoin in May 2024 and has collected 3,808 BTC so far, now worth around $405 million.

Even though BTC’s price has gone up this year, Semler’s stock has fallen over 45% this year. Its total market value is now around $435 million. Because of this drop, the company’s mNAV (market value compared to its Bitcoin value) has fallen to about 0.82. This shows that even if Bitcoin is doing well, it doesn’t always mean a company’s stock will go up — especially when the company is raising too much money to buy Bitcoin quickly.

Semler, like other Bitcoin-focused companies, raised money by selling shares and taking on debt. The hope is that Bitcoin’s price rise will also lift the stock. But Sigel warned that this doesn’t always work. Without careful planning, companies can lose value instead of gaining it.

Focus on NAV Growth, Not Just Bitcoin Holdings, Sigel Warns

Sigel also said company leaders should get paid more only when the value of each share (NAV per share) goes up. He said they should not get rewards just for buying more Bitcoin or creating more shares. This warning comes as more companies start using Bitcoin. A report in June 2025 by Standard Chartered said 61 public companies now hold 673,897 Bitcoins. That’s 3.2% of all Bitcoin. Out of these, 58 companies still trade above their NAV. This shows that many investors still support the strategy.