Grayscale Says Bitcoin Price Could Rally If Fed Avoids Rate Hikes

Highlights:

• Grayscale says Bitcoin could rebound if the Federal Reserve avoids further interest rate hikes.
• The firm links Bitcoin’s recent weakness to rising expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy.
• Grayscale sees Bitcoin as a diversifier with potential upside if rate fears ease further.

Grayscale Investments said Bitcoin could recover its recent underperformance against U.S. stocks if the Federal Reserve avoids further interest rate hikes. The view came in a Monday research note written by Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s Head of Research, on the firm’s market commentary platform, The Stack.

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The note linked Bitcoin’s weak performance to changing expectations around U.S. monetary policy. Since the start of the Iran war in late February, Grayscale said U.S. equities have gained around 9%. Over the same period, Bitcoin has fallen about 1%, while gold has dropped around 20%.

War started → Stocks +9%, Gold -20%, Bitcoin -1%.

Grayscale believes $BTC can still catch up if the Fed keeps fighting inflation instead of cutting rates.

Source: Grayscale pic.twitter.com/gUBaiIZ5qn

— The Moon Show (@TheMoonShow) June 23, 2026

According to Grayscale, heavy spending related to artificial intelligence has helped support stock prices. Bitcoin and gold, however, have struggled as investors began to expect tighter policy from the Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates can reduce demand for assets that do not pay income, such as Bitcoin and gold.

Fed Rate Expectations Put Pressure on Bitcoin Price and Gold

Grayscale said one-year Fed rate expectations have risen by about 60 basis points since late February. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so a 60-basis-point move equals 0.60 percentage points. The firm also noted that about half of Federal Reserve officials have signaled that rate increases could be appropriate in 2026.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted on June 17 to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market has continued to watch whether inflation could push policymakers toward a more aggressive stance later in the year. Pandl said Grayscale disagrees with the view that the Fed will raise rates. “Our base case is for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes. If we’re right, bitcoin’s price may catch up with stocks,” he said.

When real interest rates rise, investors can earn more from cash or government bonds. That makes non-yielding assets less attractive. Bitcoin does not pay interest, and gold also does not generate yield. Because of this, both assets can face pressure when investors expect higher rates.

Grayscale Says Bitcoin Offers Both Store-of-Value and Growth Exposure

Grayscale said Bitcoin plays two roles in investor portfolios. First, it acts as a scarce digital commodity that some investors hold as a long-term store of value. Second, it gives exposure to the growth of public blockchain networks and the wider crypto industry.

That makes Bitcoin similar to gold in some ways, but not identical. Gold is mainly viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset. Bitcoin also carries exposure to technology and crypto market growth, which can make it behave differently from gold during some market cycles.

Grayscale argued that Bitcoin’s recent weakness may not last if the Fed’s policy path becomes less hawkish. If rate hike expectations fall, Bitcoin could narrow the gap with equities. The firm also described Bitcoin as an attractively priced diversifier at current levels.

The broader cryptocurrency market also remains under pressure. The total crypto market capitalization is hovering around $2.27 trillion, showing limited movement over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is trading near $62,000, as investors remain cautious amid weakness in technology stocks and ongoing concern over ETF-related selling pressure. This cautious backdrop gives more weight to Grayscale’s argument that Fed policy could play a major role in Bitcoin’s next move.

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