Galaxy Says Stablecoins Could Add $1.2 Trillion in U.S. Credit by 2030

Highlights:

• Galaxy says regulated stablecoins could support U.S. credit markets, not weaken the banking system.
• Offshore demand may drive most stablecoin growth under the GENIUS Act, Galaxy’s model shows.
• The report estimates stablecoins could add up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. credit by 2030.

Galaxy Research has released a new report arguing that regulated stablecoins under the GENIUS Act could support U.S. credit markets rather than weaken banks. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, shared the report on X on Friday, saying Galaxy had modeled the potential impact of stablecoins on Treasury markets and bank deposits.

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we just published the most comprehensive model of stablecoins’ impact on treasury markets and bank deposits. the banks are WRONG

key findings:

– 60-70% of stablecoin growth under GENIUS will originate offshore
– imported deposits from offshore will exceed domestic deposit… https://t.co/ra7iB8uXNc

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) May 8, 2026

The report, titled “Stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, and the Evolving Structure of Dollar Finance,” says banks may be overstating the risk that stablecoins will drain deposits from the U.S. banking system. Galaxy’s main argument is that much of the future demand for regulated dollar stablecoins may come from outside the United States, not from Americans moving money out of bank accounts.

Galaxy Challenges Bank Concerns

Stablecoins are crypto tokens designed to track the value of traditional money, usually the U.S. dollar. They are widely used for trading, payments, and moving funds across blockchain networks. Under the GENIUS Act framework, stablecoin issuers would hold reserves in safe and liquid assets, including cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bills.

According to Galaxy’s model, about 60% to 70% of stablecoin growth under the GENIUS Act could come from users outside the United States. These users may include people and businesses that want easier access to digital dollars. In his X post, Thorn said offshore deposits entering the system could be about twice as large as domestic deposits moving out of banks.

This is a key part of Galaxy’s view. Banks have warned that stablecoins could divert deposits from them and reduce their lending capacity. However, Galaxy says the impact may look different if stablecoins bring fresh dollar demand from overseas into the U.S. financial system.

Stablecoins Could Support Treasury Demand

Galaxy also says every new $1 in GENIUS-compliant stablecoins could add about $0.32 to U.S. credit growth. Based on this model, stablecoins could add around $400 billion to U.S. credit markets by 2030, according to Galaxy’s main estimate. If stablecoin growth becomes much stronger, that number could rise as high as $1.2 trillion.

The report also says stablecoin growth could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bills. Stablecoin companies usually keep safe assets behind their tokens, and short-term Treasury bills are often part of those reserves. If more regulated stablecoins enter the market, issuers may need to buy more Treasury bills to back them.

Galaxy believes this could bring steady demand for short-term U.S. government debt. Its model suggests that stronger demand may slightly lower short-term Treasury yields by 3 to 5 basis points. The report also estimates that this could save the U.S. government up to $3 billion a year in borrowing costs.

Stablecoin Rules Stay in Focus

The report follows the ongoing debate over stablecoin regulation in Washington. Stablecoin advocates believe that a clear framework will lead to a safer and more useful digital dollar for payments. Some critics fear that stablecoins could threaten banks, introduce new risks, or shift financial transactions away from traditional protections. 

Galaxy’s research gives a different view of the stablecoin debate. The report says regulated stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. dollar assets. They could also help users around the world send and receive dollar-based payments more quickly. For crypto companies, the report supports the idea that stablecoins may play a bigger role in the future financial system.

Nevertheless, the report is a blueprint, not an actual result. Its projections are based on the actual implementation of the GENIUS Act, the growth rate of stablecoins, and the reactions of banks, regulators, and users. 

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