Galaxy Says Bitcoin Price Above $81K Could Mark the Bear Market Bottom

Highlights:

• Bitcoin price is close to $81,110, and Galaxy says closing above it could be a positive sign.
• BTC has already touched $81,265 this week, bringing the 50-week moving average back into focus.
• Large Bitcoin holders are buying during the rally, while smaller wallets continue to sell their coins.

Bitcoin is close to an important level near $81,000. Galaxy Research says a weekly close above this level could be a good sign for the market. In an August 28 report, Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn said Bitcoin is testing its 50-week moving average. This is the average Bitcoin price over the past 50 weeks. For the week ending August 30, the level is expected to be around $81,110.

Bitcoin has already reached $81,265 this week. That puts the price very close to the level Galaxy is watching. Galaxy wrote that “A weekly close above the 50w MA ceiling could be a very strong indicator that the bottom is in.” Bitcoin price ended last week at $77,593 after rising 23.5%. It was the closest weekly close to the 50-week moving average since Bitcoin fell below it in November last year.

Bitcoin’s 50-Week Moving Average Has Been a Key Bear Market Level

Galaxy studied Bitcoin’s previous bear markets and found that the 50-week moving average has often acted as resistance during major downturns. Once Bitcoin moved back above it and held the level, the bear market had usually already reached its bottom.

According to the report, Bitcoin moved back above the 50-week moving average 13 times during completed bear markets. Only two of those moves were followed by a lower low. Both failed signals happened during the 2021–2022 bear market. More importantly, in four of the five completed bear markets where Bitcoin had fallen below the 50-week average, the first weekly reclaim after the bottom proved successful.

Bitcoin has followed a similar pattern in the current cycle. It fell below the 50-week moving average in the week ending November 16 and stayed under that level for months. The price later dropped to $58,525 on June 30 before starting to recover.

Galaxy also looked at Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. The June low fell about 6.5% below this level before BTC bounced back. In past bear markets, the 200-week average has often worked as an important long-term support level for Bitcoin.

Whale Buying Adds Support to Bitcoin Price Recovery

Separate on-chain data also points to a shift in Bitcoin market activity. In an August 29 post, analyst Ali Charts said Bitcoin had climbed about 31% from $62,229 on August 1 to $81,500. However, wallets holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC had been selling during the rally, with their Accumulation Trend Score falling to -0.982.

BITCOIN: RETAIL SELLS. WHALES BUY.

Bitcoin is up 31%, and retail has been selling the entire rally.

Since August 1, BTC has jumped from $62,229 to $81,500, while wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC recorded an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982.

At the same time, whales holding 100+… pic.twitter.com/qIIiAPEXEY

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 28, 2026

At the same time, larger wallets holding at least 100 BTC were accumulating. “The bigger players appear to be buying what retail is selling,” he said. Ali Charts also highlighted $73,880 as an important Bitcoin support level in an August 28 post. He said the level currently matches the -0.5 MVRV Pricing Band. If BTC stays above it, the model points toward $100,000 as the next major target.

BITCOIN MUST HOLD $73,880

That's where the -0.5 MVRV Pricing Band currently sits.

If bitcoin:native holds above it, the MVRV Pricing Bands point to $100,000 as the next major target. https://t.co/EacCZxl4Du pic.twitter.com/cF66pwySfw

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 28, 2026

At the time of writing on August 29, Bitcoin price was trading around $77,688, down about 2.5% in the last 24 hours but still up around 0.9% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.