Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Likely to Consolidate Around $107,530

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is trading around the $107,530 support level
• Consolidation driven by macro uncertainty for both bulls and bears
• Clarity on trade relations between China and the US could offer a clear direction 

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading flat today, unchanged in the last 24 hours. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $108,059, up 0.30% for the day. However, Bitcoin trading volumes have shot up. They have gone up by 65.82% to stand at $101.64 billion. The prevailing market situation likely influences Bitcoin’s slow price action.

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Ongoing US-China Trade War Driving Short-Term Uncertainty Around Bitcoin Price

To begin with, the ongoing trade war between the US and China has introduced a layer of uncertainty into the financial markets. The uncertainty is exacerbated by the fact that the US president has been known to cause impromptu updates on the trade war through social media. This is quite evident in Bitcoin’s price action on October 10 when Trump made a social media post about a possible 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

🔖Don't let the FUD control you. Study @polymarket instead

-Market overreaction on trump tweets?

Markets dipped yesterday after Trump tweets suggesting more possible hurdles on Tariffs imposition from US on China

-Polymarket reality:

But on the other hand with Polymarket we… pic.twitter.com/sjph5JHEUw

— ToZeeMoon (@AltsandCharts) October 22, 2025

The social media post triggered a selloff across the financial markets, and many assets are yet to retest the prices they were trading at on October 10. Bitcoin has also exhibited significant weakness since then, with the price mostly moving sideways. With nothing much having changed since the announcement of a possible 100% tariff on November 1, investors remain jittery. This may explain the likely exit of short-term investors, especially leveraged longs, into Bitcoin in the short term. This is also reflected in the price, where Bitcoin’s price has shown little movement since the October 10 price correction. 

President Trump’s Social Media Communication A Factor In BTC Price Action

The sideways price action is also driven by the fact that short sellers, who would typically instill new volatility, are not active as well. That’s because of the same factors that are driving caution in leveraged longs. With the ongoing trade war and the fact that a President’s social media posts can move the market, anything can happen.

A single post on social media by the President regarding progress in the trade war could trigger a market surge and trap shorts. The situation for short sellers is made worse by the fact that Bitcoin is trading around a short-term support level. This means there is a risk that the support holds and the price rebounds to new all-time highs. Essentially, until there is clarity on the direction of trade between the US and China, Bitcoin is likely to continue trading in a consolidation pattern.

This is definitely the "insiders traders" market…

Trump will never shut the fuck up.. The only thing we can do is HOLD, otherwise trying to trade this will get you chopped out..

Every stupid thing Trump says, gets automatically spread around all social media in a split second pic.twitter.com/ZLXFBpcePz

— GMDn_ø 🇦🇷 (@GMDn_0) October 21, 2025

Bitcoin Remains Attractive to Long-Term Investors

However, even with the trade war, long-term investors continue to take positions in Bitcoin. Different countries are also taking regulatory steps that make it easier for people to hold Bitcoin.

For instance, Japan is taking steps to make it easier for banks to hold Bitcoin in their balance sheets. This is driving bullish sentiment and also creating the perception that Bitcoin is an asset worth keeping long-term. This may explain why, despite the cloud of uncertainty over the markets, Bitcoin remains stable.

JUST IN: JAPAN JUST ANNOUNCED THEY WILL ALLOW BANKS TO BUY AND SELL #BITCOIN

WORLD'S 5th LARGEST ECONOMY. MASSIVE 🔥 pic.twitter.com/J5BSPoDFCW

— The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) October 20, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Trading At Short-Term Support

Following its recent price correction, Bitcoin is oscillating around the $107,530 support level. If bulls gain momentum and a rally occurs from this support level, Bitcoin could surge to $113,474 in the short term.

However, if bears take control and push Bitcoin through the $107,530 support, then a correction to $100k could follow. Of these two scenarios, a rebound is more likely. That’s because in the broader markets, the Gold price rally is starting to ease. This could be an indicator that uncertainty around the trade war is in decline. As such, capital could flow more into risk-on assets going into the future.

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