Bitcoin Price Forecast – BTC Likely Headed to $120K as Exchange Supply Drops

Highlights:

• Bitcoin exchange reserves are at record lows
• Low exchange reserves mean demand is chasing a declining supply
• Such dynamics could trigger a price breakout to record highs 

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a new phase and could be headed toward a parabolic price move. After a recent correction, bulls have recently taken control and quickly pushed Bitcoin back higher, erasing most of the losses that Bitcoin recently experienced. Bitcoin appeared to be accelerating bullish momentum, and at the time of going to press, it was trading at $109,654, up by 1.70%. 

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Bitcoin trading volumes have also shot up 25% intraday to a high of $57.23 billion. This is an indicator that bullish sentiment is returning to the market. A couple of factors could see Bitcoin rally even higher in the future. 

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Are Shrinking Fast

One of them is the fact that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are drying up. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin exchange reserves have hit an all-time low. This means that demand for Bitcoin is currently outpacing supply. In economics, when demand outpaces supply, prices increase significantly.

#BITCOIN BALANCE ON EXCHANGES HITS AN ALL TIME LOW.

TIGHTEN YOUR SEATBELTS 🚀 pic.twitter.com/eedNd1Y1zc

— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) June 10, 2025

Corporations’ rising adoption of Bitcoin could trigger a supply shock that could see Bitcoin rocket to new highs in the short to medium term. Several top corporations, such as Strategy and MetaPlanet, are already lining up billions of dollars to purchase Bitcoin. This is a big deal that, under current market dynamics, could see Bitcoin rocket to new highs in the short to medium term, as such big purchases meet an environment of low supply. 

Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Rising

However, it is not only the possibility of a supply shock that could push Bitcoin higher. There is also the fact that institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin is on the rise through ETFs. Data shows that as of June 9, Bitcoin ETFs had recorded 14 straight days of inflows. Yesterday, BlackRock’s ETF, the largest of the Bitcoin ETFs, recorded inflows of 1140 Bitcoin. This is a confidence boost for Bitcoin and could drive retail FOMO in the short term. That’s especially true with the news that the supply of Bitcoin in exchanges is shrinking at an accelerated rate.

Despite occasional outflows, U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs continue to inject billions in net inflows.
Last week alone saw over $2 billion in #ETF demand — institutions are buying the dip, and it’s pushing $BTC higher.#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Altseason pic.twitter.com/8gf4X4ZriN

— StartFi (@StartFinance) June 9, 2025

Bitcoin On Track to Repeat Past Halving Cycles

Due to past cycle patterns, Bitcoin’s current price dynamics are also likely to trigger FOMO. The Bitcoin 4-year cycle usually starts after the halving and ends towards the end of the following year. The 2016/17 cycle peaked out in December 2017 after starting in April 2016. Similarly, the 2020/21 cycle began in April 2020 and went to late 2021. 

While there has been a lot of uncertainty during this cycle, Bitcoin has continued to trend higher and recently made new all-time highs. With the shrinkage of supply in exchanges amidst rising demand, the odds are high that the cycle is set to continue. Expectations of the 4-year cycle holding firm could see Bitcoin rally to new highs, potentially above $200k before the end of the year.

And while attention wanes, conviction grows.

62% of all Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year.

That’s historic dormancy.

We last saw this in 2016 and 2020—right before liftoff. pic.twitter.com/4bwS68chuo

— Swan (@Swan) June 6, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin In a Minor Correction After Intraday Price Rally

Bitcoin rallied to a high of $110,297 on June 9. However, the rally happened so quickly, and short-term traders are likely taking profits. This is evident because Bitcoin is starting to consolidate slightly below $110,297 in the day. 

With the underlying momentum still bullish, a rally through $110,297, now resistance, could see Bitcoin rally to prices above $120k in the short term. On the other hand, if short sellers take control of current price levels, Bitcoin could drop to around $106,383, now a short-term support level.

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