Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Could Rally to $116K Soon as Key Support Holds

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is holding steady at the $110,030 support level
• A bounce off this support could send Bitcoin to $116k short-term
• End of QT and latest rate cut could trigger rally off support 

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the red today, reflecting the weakness across the cryptocurrency market. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $110,227.71, down by 2.37% in the day. However, even as the price shows weakness, Bitcoin’s trading volumes have gone up slightly in the day. They have increased by 6.24% to stand at $69.54 billion. 

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This increase in trading volumes when the price is going down could be an indicator that holders may be exiting their positions in the short term. It could be an indicator that bears are taking control, at least in the short term. However, given that this is happening at a time when the macro factors are turning bullish, it could be a short-lived event.

Return of Risk-On Sentiment In the Market Could Send BTC Higher

A primary reason why Bitcoin is showing weakness is that money could be flowing into risk-on assets that are already showing momentum. For instance, the stock market indices such as the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are currently making new all-time highs. This momentum is likely to continue now that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. However, this money could start flowing into Bitcoin soon as well.

That’s because the Federal Reserve has announced a rate cut of 25 basis points. At the same time, they announced that they will officially end quantitative tightening on December 1. This is a big move that is set to unleash a flow of capital into risk-on assets. With stock indices already trading at record levels, capital is likely to move into assets that offer more growth opportunities.

Bitcoin presents one such opportunity for investors going into the future. That’s because despite the alignment of positive macro factors, it is still trading close to the support level it established after the October 10 selloff. This makes it a low-risk buy for investors looking to capitalize on the shift in market sentiment to risk-on assets.

BREAKING: The Fed cut rates another 25 bps, moving down to a new range of 3.75-4.00%. They also announced an end to QT in December which was expected. The bond market is pricing in another rate cut on December 10 which would bring the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.50-3.75%. pic.twitter.com/Ei64rdKQbF

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 29, 2025

Potential Passage of Market Structure Law Could Send Bitcoin Higher

Another factor that gives Bitcoin strong upside potential is the recent announcement by David Sacks that the market structure law could be passed this year. This is a big deal as it could add even more certainty for long-term institutional holders. It is a factor that could trigger a mass inflow of capital into BTC going into the future. Given that Bitcoin is already gaining traction through ETFs, this bill could send Bitcoin to new highs in the foreseeable future.

COINBASE CEO JUST SAID LIVE ON CNBC THE #BITCOIN CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL IS ABOUT TO PASS

IT’S HAPPENING!! pic.twitter.com/TQBG3dUd6v

— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) October 23, 2025

Stock-To-Flow Hints At Possible Rally to $200k

Technical market indicators also point to a scenario where Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase before a breakout. For context, the stock-to-flow model indicates that BTC is gaining bullish momentum. From the stock-to-flow model, Bitcoin could be headed to prices above $200k in the short to medium term.

At the same time, the flow of stablecoins into exchanges is on the rise. Such an expansion of stablecoin supply usually points to an impending Bitcoin breakout. That’s because this money usually flows into Bitcoin first, before extending into the altcoin market.

“Once the market realizes the four year cycle is not going to driving the market in the future …. We Will quickly go to 200k” (bitcoin price) pic.twitter.com/kKv13rx3ta

— ClipsNotMagz🍟 (@ClipsNotMagz) October 30, 2025

Technical Analysis – BTC Trading at Critical Support

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $110,030 support. The support is quite strong, as an attempt at breaching it earlier in the day was quickly rejected. If bulls take control and push Bitcoin off this support, then a rally to $116,027 could follow in the short term.

However, if bears take control and push Bitcoin through the $110,030 support, then a correction to prices as low as $100k could follow in the short term. Of these two scenarios, the odds are higher for a rally to $116,027. That’s because the macro environment favors a flood of capital into risk-on assets such as BTC.

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