Bitcoin Bull Market Signal Appears for the Fifth Time as BTC Holds Near $83K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin’s STH cost basis has crossed above the active LTH cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
• Darkfost says the signal has appeared only five times and points to improving long-term Bitcoin market momentum.
• Bitcoin trades near $83,100, while analysts are watching $84,000, $88,000 and the 50-week moving average near $79,000.

Bitcoin has triggered an on-chain signal that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes confirms a shift toward a bull market, even as BTC faces fresh short-term selling pressure. In a September 24 post on X, Darkfost said Bitcoin’s short-term holder, or STH, cost basis has crossed above the active long-term holder, or LTH, cost basis. He described it as confirmation that market momentum has changed after an earlier signal appeared on July 11.

Darkfost wrote:

“Bull Market Confirmed.”

However, he also warned that no market indicator is perfect and the signal could still be invalidated. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,316, down roughly 3% over the past 24 hours. BTC is also about 34% below its $126,198 all-time high, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Crosses Active LTH Cost Basis

Darkfost’s signal compares the average cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders with that of active long-term holders. For this analysis, he defines active LTH supply as Bitcoin that has moved at least once during the past seven years. This removes very old BTC that has remained untouched for years and may no longer reflect active market behavior.

According to Darkfost, the latest crossover is only the fifth time the signal has appeared. The move suggests that newer Bitcoin holders now have a higher average acquisition cost than the active long-term holder group. Darkfost sees this change as another sign that Bitcoin’s broader market structure is improving. Still, five occurrences provide only a limited historical sample, and Darkfost acknowledged that there remains room for error.

✅ Bull Market Confirmed.

After sharing with you that the end of the bear market was approaching with a signal given on July 11th, we now have the confirmation signal that the momentum has indeed shifted.

This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the… pic.twitter.com/wuwdUsAW5J

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 24, 2026

More Than 3.5 Million BTC Remains Dormant

Darkfost also pointed to the large amount of older Bitcoin that remains untouched. More than 3.5 million BTC held for over 10 years continues to stay dormant, according to his analysis. He said this pool has generally been growing by around 8,000 to 30,000 BTC per month.

Since 2019, that trend has turned negative only once. The exception came when an early Bitcoin miner moved roughly 100,000 BTC. Darkfost considers that event an isolated case rather than a broader change in long-term holder behavior. He also linked the latest improvement in Bitcoin’s market structure partly to liquidity entering through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Slips Below $84K as Traders Watch $88K

The improving on-chain picture does not rule out another short-term Bitcoin pullback. Crypto analyst Ted said in a separate September 24 post on X that BTC appeared to be building a short-term bottom around $84,000.

Bitcoin has since slipped to around $83,100, placing it below that level at the time of writing. Ted sees $88,000 as a possible resistance area if Bitcoin stages another relief rally. Failure to recover could instead send BTC back toward the low-$80,000 range. A deeper correction would put the 50-week moving average near $79,000 in focus.

Ted said:

“A short-term bounce doesn’t necessarily mean the broader correction is over.”

That leaves traders with several important Bitcoin price levels to watch. A move back above $84,000 could strengthen the short-term recovery, while $88,000 remains the next major hurdle in Ted’s setup. On the downside, the low-$80,000 area and the 50-week moving average around $79,000 could become important if selling pressure continues.

$BTC looks like it’s forming a short-term bottom around the $84K area.

I could see one final push toward $88K before another leg lower into the low $80Ks.

If the downside continues, I’d be watching the 50W MA around $79K as a deeper support zone.

The 50W MA is an important…

— Ted (@TedPillows) September 24, 2026