Highlights:
- Bitcoin price is currently consolidating below the $64,304 resistance
- A rally through the $64,304 resistance could send Bitcoin to $70k
- Rate cuts, declining supply, and other positive factors support a bullish breakout
Bitcoin is holding steady today, consolidating below the critical $64,304 resistance level. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $63,833.06, up marginally by 0.006%.
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The prevailing question is: will Bitcoin break through the $64,304 resistance and ignite a new bull rally, or will it succumb to selling pressure and retrace to lower levels? Based on the current market dynamics, a breakout seems to be the more likely scenario.
Path to a Breakout – Potential Scenarios
If Bitcoin manages to rally past the $64,304 resistance, it could signal the start of the anticipated 2024/25 bull run. In such a scenario, the first target would be a move to $70,000 soon. From there, Bitcoin could gather momentum and potentially rally to levels above $100,000, driven by a mix of technical and macroeconomic factors.
However, two possibilities could unfold should Bitcoin fail to break the $64,304 resistance. The first is the continuation of the current price consolidation. In this case, Bitcoin price would likely oscillate between the $64,304 resistance and the $61,420 support. This pattern would signal a period of indecision in the market, where traders are waiting for more robust catalysts before making decisive moves.
The second, more bearish scenario is a correction in which Bitcoin loses the $61,420 support. If this support fails, the next likely target would be a drop to $58,000. While market sentiment less favors this outcome, it is not entirely off the table. Much depends on how Bitcoin behaves around the current resistance level and the external market factors influencing its trajectory.
Bitcoin Price’s Historical Trends Point to a Bullish October
Despite the potential downside scenarios, the odds favor a bullish breakout in the short term. Several vital factors support the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through the $64,304 resistance and heading toward $70,000 and beyond.
One of the most compelling arguments for a potential rally is historical price behavior. Bitcoin operates on a four-year cycle, often turning bullish in October during its halving years. Historically, in the halving year, Bitcoin tends to rally by over 50% in the fourth quarter. So far, Bitcoin price performance in September has been relatively strong, laying the groundwork for a potentially explosive October. This seasonal trend and current market dynamics significantly increase the odds of Bitcoin pushing past the $100,000 mark soon.
Bitcoin could make a parabolic move soon.
Here's why:
Historically, the average return for Bitcoin in Q4 is 88%.
If we see an 88% gain in Q4, it would take Bitcoin close to $120,000.
Even if we get a 55% move upward (like we saw last year), it could take Bitcoin to $100,000.… pic.twitter.com/oVYMAntGA3
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) September 24, 2024
Macroeconomic Factors and Supply Dynamics
In addition to historical trends, macroeconomic factors add to Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment. Recent interest rate cuts in the US and China have injected liquidity into global markets, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates often lead to increased investment in assets perceived as hedges against currency devaluation, with Bitcoin frequently being one such option. This macro backdrop will likely support Bitcoin’s push through the $64,304 resistance, setting it toward new all-time highs.
Another crucial factor that could increase Bitcoin’s price is the declining supply of BTC on exchanges. Data indicates that many Bitcoin holders are transferring their assets into cold storage, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for trading.
This shift suggests that investors are adopting a long-term holding strategy, expecting higher prices in the future. With demand for Bitcoin on the rise and supply constraints intensifying, this scarcity could lead to a rapid price increase in the short term.
Recap – Bitcoin on Course to $70k
Bitcoin’s price is at a pivotal point. The consolidation below the $64,304 resistance suggests a significant move is on the horizon. While downside risks exist, the likelihood of a bullish breakout appears more robust, given historical trends, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and the decreasing supply of Bitcoin on exchanges. If Bitcoin clears the $64,304 hurdle, the stage could be set for a rally to $70,000 and possibly $100,000.
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