The Toncoin price (TON) fell like dead weight in the air over the weekend following the detention of Telegram founder Pavel Durov. On August 24, Durov was detained by French authorities at Le Bourget airport after he arrived from Azerbaijan. Pavel’s detention stems from claims that Telegram did not adequately prevent its platform from being used for illicit activities. This news has raised concerns about the future of Toncoin, especially given its close ties to Telegram.
Currently, the Toncoin price is up almost 1%, with the TON/USD changing hands at $5.62. Its 24-hour trading volume is down 46% to $1.16 billion, reflecting fears that regulatory scrutiny could increase, potentially threatening Toncoin’s price and position.
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Meanwhile, Telegram has taken to the X platform, noting that it abides by EU laws, including the Digital Services Act – its moderation is within industry standards and is constantly improving. They have added that “Telegram CEO Pavel Durov has nothing to hide and travels frequently in Europe”.
⚖️ Telegram abides by EU laws, including the Digital Services Act — its moderation is within industry standards and constantly improving.
✈️ Telegram's CEO Pavel Durov has nothing to hide and travels frequently in Europe.
😵💫 It is absurd to claim that a platform or its owner…
— Telegram Messenger (@telegram) August 25, 2024
On the other hand, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has expressed significant concern regarding the potential implications of Durov’s arrest. He has highlighted that “the charge seems to be just being “unmoderated” and not giving up people’s data). This looks very bad and worrying for the future of software and comms freedom in Europe.”
I've criticized Telegram before for not being serious with encryption.
But (given the info available so far: the charge seems to be just being "unmoderated" and not giving up people's data), this looks very bad and worrying for the future of software and comms freedom in Europe.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 25, 2024
Toncoin Statistical Data
Based on CoinmarketCap data:
- TON price now – $5.62
- TON market cap – $14 billion
- TON total supply –5 billion
- TON circulating supply – 2 billion
- TON ranking – #10
The Toncoin price is attempting to recover after plunging a whopping 20% on August 24, after the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel surfaced. This forced TON to fall from its initial price of $6.87 to around $5.25, shedding off its market value by approximately $2.7 billion. As the token attempts to jump out of the red zone, it remains about 15% below its prior trading levels, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the situation.
Will the Bulls Initiate a Buy-Back Campaign at This Level?
The technical indicators flash bearish, suggesting that the sellers control the market. First, the Toncoin price trades below the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). In this case, the bulls must first conquer the $6.42 and $6.48, which act as immediate resistance keys against upward movement.
Notably, the Relative Strength Index plunged to the 30-oversold zone at 32. However, if the buyers become aggressive at this level and initiate a buy-back campaign, the Toncin price could soon reclaim its initial price at $6.87. However, if the bulls do not put up a fight at this level, the sellers could keep dominating, with the RSI swinging below the 50-mean level.
On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) worsens the outlook, upholding the bearish sentiment. Currently, the MACD indicator(blue) has crossed below the orange signal line, signaling intense selling pressure. However, traders should consider rallying behind TON as soon as the MACD flips above the orange signal line.
Toncoin Price Outlook
In the 4-hour chart analysis, the Toncoin price is down about 15% from its initial price despite the slight recovery. If the sellers keep dominating the market, the TON price could drop further. This will see the bears breach the $5.25 support to around the $4.87 mark.
However, if the bulls put up a fight and Pavel is released from the French authorities, the TON price could record a new ATH. This may cause a buying frenzy in the Toncoin market, with the bulls flipping the resistance keys into support. In such a case, the TON price could retest its initial price at $6.87. In a highly bullish case, the TON price could record a new ATH at around $10.
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