Scaramucci Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Not Over, Expects Recovery in Late 2026

Highlights:

• Scaramucci says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may still be guiding market behaviour today.
• He believes the OG whale selling near highs helped deepen the recent correction.
• Scaramucci expects weaker price action now, with recovery momentum building in late 2026.

Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, said Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle may still be shaping the market, even after major changes in the crypto industry. In a recent interview with Scott Melker, Scaramucci argued that Bitcoin’s current weakness does not mean its long-term trend has broken. Instead, he described the latest pullback as part of a pattern that has appeared in previous halving cycles, where Bitcoin usually posts a strong move higher before later facing a correction.

Whale Selling and ETF Demand Keep Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Alive

Scaramucci said that belief is one reason the pattern keeps repeating. According to him, many early Bitcoin holders, often called OG whales, still expect Bitcoin to move in a similar way after each halving cycle. When those investors start selling near the same price levels, they can help create the same market trend again. That is why Scaramucci described the cycle as a self-fulfilling pattern.

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He connected that view to the heavy selling Bitcoin saw near the important $100,000 mark. In his opinion, some long-term holders likely sold there to lock in profits because they believed a correction usually starts at that stage of the cycle. That selling put more pressure on the market and made the pullback deeper. Still, Scaramucci said the drop does not mean Bitcoin’s bigger trend is broken. He described it as a normal correction within a larger market cycle.

Scaramucci also said Bitcoin’s market is no longer exactly like it was in earlier years. He noted that stronger institutional involvement and steady inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have changed the market by reducing some of the sharp volatility seen in past cycles. Still, he said these changes have only made the pattern less intense, not removed it. In his view, larger outside investment has helped calm some of Bitcoin’s bigger swings, but the market still continues to move in cycles.

Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Recovery May Start in Late 2026

Scaramucci said Bitcoin could remain choppy for most of the year and could likely rebound in the fourth quarter of 2026. He said many investors had expected Bitcoin to reach $150,000 last year due to Trump’s pro-crypto stance and improving US regulation. But the October crash, which pushed Bitcoin from about $126,000 to $60,000, broke that view. He said markets often move against popular expectations and described the current downturn as a normal correction, not a structural break. Scaramucci also noted that the debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still ongoing after the asset ended the previous year in the red.

Fresh Geopolitical Tensions Add New Pressure on Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell 2.8% overnight after President Donald Trump warned Iran in a Truth Social post. The price dropped from about $70,400 to $68,200, then bounced near $69,500. It later slipped again and was trading around $68,400 at press time. The move appeared to be a direct reaction to rising geopolitical tension. Markets quickly repriced risk as fears of a wider conflict increased.