Highlights:
- Bitcoin is trading at the $68,757 support level intra-day after a minor correction
- Bears not strong enough despite pushing the price to key support
- A bounce off this support could trigger a rally to $71k and higher
Bitcoin has been in a correction since October 30. The correction followed a rally to a high of $73,600. However, after the recent price rally, the correction has not been accompanied by high volumes, an indicator that it could be some traders taking profit. Today, Bitcoin sellers are losing momentum.
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At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $68,757 and had gained marginally by 0.40%. Buying volumes are rising as well, an indicator that bulls could be regaining control. Overall, Bitcoin traders are indecisive as the US election approaches.
Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Trading at Key Support Level
From the charts, Bitcoin is trading at $68,267 support after the recent price correction. Selling volumes have dropped around the $68,267 support an indicator that the market does not expect a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
The underlying fundamentals are bullish and the market is simply waiting for the outcome of the Nov 5, US election. Depending on the US election outcome, if there is a strong bounce off the $68,267 support, the key level to watch would be the $71,353 resistance. If bulls push Bitcoin through the $71,353 resistance, then a rally to prices as high as $75k could follow.
On the other hand, if there is a surge in selling volumes and Bitcoin drops below the $68,267 support, the key level to watch would be the $65,877 support. A push through this could indicate a short-term shift in market structure. In such a scenario, Bitcoin could drop to prices as low as $62k in the short term.
US Elections Impact on Bitcoin
Each of these two scenarios could play out in the short-term depending on how the US election turns out. There are a lot of expectations amongst crypto investors around a Trump presidency. This comes from the fact that he has been openly pro-crypto.
In essence, in the event that Trump wins, the market could turn strongly bullish, and rally through the $71,353 resistance. In such a case, Bitcoin could easily rally to prices as high as $100k in the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, there are fears that Kamala Harris could continue Joe Biden’s hard stance on crypto, which has been characterized by regulation through enforcement. As such, if she wins, there is a chance that Bitcoin could push through the $68,267 support, and potentially drop to around the $65,877 support.
That said, there is still a chance that the $65,877 support could hold even if she wins. That’s because Kamala Harris has recently come out in support of new growth technologies like AI and digital assets. This could be a signal of a much clearer regulatory environment compared to the one the market has had under Joe Biden.
The China Factor in Bitcoin Price Action
There is also the China factor in the equation. Forbes recently reported that China is preparing a $1.4 trillion stimulus package after the US election, and could even add it if Donald Trump wins. This is a big deal as a sizeable chunk of this easy money in the economy could flow into cryptocurrencies.
The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Remains Intact
Then there is a historical aspect to Bitcoin. Every 4 years Bitcoin enters a parabolic bull cycle that usually starts in October. So far, Bitcoin has followed this cycle well, and if the trend continues, it could be headed for a rally regardless of who wins. In essence, once the uncertainties of the US election are over, Bitcoin could rally through the $71,353 resistance regardless of who wins the election.
In #Bitcoin halving & election years, November is always extremely bullish.
Don’t get fooled now. pic.twitter.com/EuMAlB3Jal
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) November 4, 2024
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