Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Consolidating as Market Awaits Interest Rates Decision

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is trading between $109,453 resistance and $107,365 support
• Bitcoin could rally through $109,453 if interest rates are cut
• Breach of $107,365 support could trigger a drop below $100k

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the red today, reflecting the overall weakness across the cryptocurrency market. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $107,786, down by 0.82% in the day. While the correction is minor, it signals fear that Bitcoin could be headed below $100k. The concerns around Bitcoin are evident in the fact that, as the price drops, trading volumes are on the rise. 

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin trading volumes have shot up 15% to a high of $53.38 billion. This shows that Bitcoin investors are exiting their positions out of fear that a much bigger correction could soon come. Such worries are driven by what is happening in the market and past trends in the cryptocurrency market around this period.

Analysts Fear Bitcoin Price Could Drop Below $100k

One of the key factors driving fears around Bitcoin is analysts’ views that it is trending towards the $100k support level. A growing consensus is that a correction through the $100k price level could cause Bitcoin to enter bear territory and likely be headed much lower. Since cryptocurrency bear markets tend to be deep, investors may choose to exit their positions while still profitable and wait for a clear return of bullish sentiment.

Blackrock is selling

Everyone is selling

Retail thinks its a small retracement

But in reality retracement is bigger then they think, we are going to see BTC below 100k in September pic.twitter.com/Q4p2tD1TUO

— V d (@vadovde) August 25, 2025

History of Market Corrections In September Driving Bitcoin Selloff

Then, there is the historical aspect of the ongoing selloff. Data shows that markets tend to experience a correction in September in what is dubbed the September effect. This term describes a trend where, after gains for most of the year, investors start booking profits in September. This year is no different. Despite this cryptocurrency cycle being different from previous cycles, Bitcoin has still done well this year and even made all-time highs above $120k. The result is that investors, afraid of losing all these gains, especially now that the market is showing weakness, could be selling.

📊 Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality

We’re wrapping up August (and yes, it’s been a tough week). Looking at history, September is often BTC’s weakest month:

Avg: –3.77% | Median: –4.35%

6 of the last 10 Septembers closed red 🔻

Our take for next month: expect chop/downside risk… pic.twitter.com/7Wmu0g2CM3

— CryptoPulse (@CryptoPulse_CRU) August 31, 2025

Strong Dollar Adding to Bitcoin’s Weakness

A strengthening dollar is another factor driving Bitcoin’s weak price action. Due to the prolonged high interest rates in the US, dollar demand has remained elevated for a while. At the same time, uncertainties around tariffs and other macroeconomic factors have kept dollar demand elevated. Now that this uncertainty is not showing signs of easing, the dollar continues to strengthen, and this could keep the price of Bitcoin in a downtrend, at least in the short term.

6/
💭 The Dollar Factor

Macro adds fuel. The US dollar index (DXY) is softening on slowing growth + looming Fed rate cuts.

BTC’s 52-week correlation with DXY is –0.25, the weakest in 2 years.

Dollar down → crypto up has been the historical playbook. pic.twitter.com/PBogozZCie

— Edward (@Defi_Edward) September 1, 2025

Upcoming Interest Rate Cut Could Reignite Bitcoin Bullish Momentum

However, even with the fears of a possible correction, a Bitcoin rebound could be around the corner. A key factor that could trigger such a rebound for Bitcoin is a potential interest rate cut within the month. After months of non-commitment to interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve gave the strongest hint of an upcoming rate cut on August 22. The result is that the dollar could weaken and send assets like Bitcoin rocketing. Some analysts project that Bitcoin could be headed to prices as high as $200k within the year with a rate cut.

🚨 BREAKING: Powell just dropped hints at Jackson Hole! Fed Chair signals September rate cuts may be warranted as "baseline outlook and shifting balance of risks" suggest policy adjustments ahead 📉
Markets are now pricing an 85-95% chance of a September cut. The money printer… pic.twitter.com/rFsp6htpk9

— PaulBarron (@paulbarron) August 22, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Entering Short-Term Consolidation Period

Bitcoin is consolidating between the $107,365 support and $109,453 resistance. If bulls take control and push Bitcoin through the $109,453 resistance, a rally to $113,262 could follow. 

On the other hand, if bears take control and push Bitcoin through the $107,365 support, then a correction to prices below $100k could follow. The direction Bitcoin will breakout in will likely be determined by interest rates. This month’s interest rate could trigger a rally to $109,453 and rally to $113,262 in the short term.